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The Scuppers This is a new forum for the not necessarily fishing related topics...

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Old 08-22-2011, 09:27 AM   #1
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Future Weather: Irene

Latest computer predictions: AM hurricane guidance has Irene just south of N.Carolina Sat AM as Cat 2/3 storm, ready to run the coast. Long ways out but interesting track up the east coast, especially if it moves slightly farther east.
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Old 08-22-2011, 10:02 AM   #2
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got to watch this one closely, I have a connecting flight in Miami friday morning!

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Old 08-22-2011, 10:10 AM   #3
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What would a North Shore leg be without threat of a Hurricane?

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Old 08-22-2011, 02:22 PM   #4
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This just might be interesting....
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Old 08-23-2011, 05:24 AM   #5
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More east in the forecast this AM.
Potential for a bounce off Hatteras then nailing us.

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Old 08-23-2011, 05:32 AM   #6
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Repeat of BOB? Only land falling hurricane of 1991, direct hit on NE.

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Old 08-23-2011, 05:49 AM   #7
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Quote:
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Repeat of BOB? Only land falling hurricane of 1991, direct hit on NE.
Similar is possible.

NOGAPS shows it taking a similar track except a little more East at Hatteras then running us down, GFS mean (consensus) shows Nantucket getting a direct hit.

General consensus shows somewhere between Patchogue LI and Nantucket. Basically nothing good.

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Old 08-23-2011, 06:47 AM   #8
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This morning's model:

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Old 08-23-2011, 07:11 AM   #9
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8am refresh looking a bit better, but its still a week away and the resolution is crap.

Showing staying offshore along the canyons which means lots of wind/rain/waves/surge.

This could change.

GFS doesn't make me happy.

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Old 08-24-2011, 05:57 AM   #10
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Quote:
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This morning's model:
6am = more left again.

Landfall still somewhere between LI and Nantucket.

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Old 08-24-2011, 11:05 AM   #11
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Evacuations begin in NC as Irene strengthens - Weather - msnbc.com


I'm not loving this track, for where I am.

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Old 08-23-2011, 07:24 AM   #12
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another day of model verification will start to tell the tale. Watch the position of the two High's and the upper atmosphere trough over NE later in the week.....

Bryan

Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
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Old 08-23-2011, 11:44 AM   #13
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May finally get some decent waves!
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Old 08-23-2011, 01:49 PM   #14
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looks better for my flight from miami.

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Old 08-24-2011, 11:12 AM   #15
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I hear ya mike. Debating in whether to drop the tent trailer or risk it. Back section on BSP might be safe enough, wind being the only concern
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Old 08-24-2011, 11:17 AM   #16
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John, combine the models and they go straight up my yard.

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Old 08-24-2011, 11:53 AM   #17
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Quote:
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John, combine the models and they go straight up my yard.
They were going straight through my yard.

With the harder Northeast quadrant, the more east the better.

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Old 08-24-2011, 12:05 PM   #18
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NOAAs latest track has the eye pretty much going right up Narragansett Bay.

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Old 08-24-2011, 12:09 PM   #19
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The other thing I'm not loving is their model that has it still a cat 1 a good bit inland, in Maine, on Monday.

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Old 08-24-2011, 12:16 PM   #20
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Quote:
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They were going straight through my yard.

With the harder Northeast quadrant, the more east the better.
If you enjoy major flooding, yes.

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Old 08-24-2011, 12:21 PM   #21
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If you enjoy major flooding, yes.
50miles either side of 95 calling for potentially 10"

Bryan

Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
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Old 08-24-2011, 12:13 PM   #22
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It will be intersting the next couple of days, but as always, the track won't be close to 'locked in' until it crosses 40/70, at which point we'll be all sleeping Sunday night.....

Bryan

Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
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Old 08-24-2011, 12:41 PM   #23
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i,ll stay away up here in kennebago
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:29 PM   #24
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I'm seeing a great weather window for Sat morning tuna!!!
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:40 PM   #25
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Too many models put Truro on the dangerous right-side of the storm. This does not make me happy. However, I am wondering which beach I'm going to fish on Saturday.

Three-fourths of the Earth's surface is water, and one-fourth is land. It is quite clear that the good Lord intended us to spend triple the amount of time fishing as taking care of the lawn.
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Old 08-24-2011, 04:03 PM   #26
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5pm is a whole lot more of the same.

horseneck road along the water will disappear.

also possible cat4 in the next 12 hours.

looks like it'll hold cat 2 just south of us saturday.

High tide in NB @ 1920 Sunday

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Old 08-24-2011, 05:24 PM   #27
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Quote:
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5pm is a whole lot more of the same.

horseneck road along the water will disappear.

also possible cat4 in the next 12 hours.

looks like it'll hold cat 2 just south of us saturday.

High tide in NB @ 1920 Sunday
So are you saying that I shouldn't head down to my friends beach house on West Island this weekend?

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Old 08-24-2011, 07:26 PM   #28
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So are you saying that I shouldn't head down to my friends beach house on West Island this weekend?
Bring your floaties.
And a chainsaw.

And about 30 gallons of gas.

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Old 08-24-2011, 08:12 PM   #29
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I'm seeing a great weather window for Sat morning tuna!!!



Hope so

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Old 08-24-2011, 08:31 PM   #30
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I don't see the big shift west that some guys seem to be talking about

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