Hate To Say I Was Right But........

[BigFish]

It has officially been determined that we are in a recession........and have been since December 2007!!! Guess, as I speculated earlier, they were just afraid to use the word!

[RIJIMMY]

theres no money in green, only expense. Technology? that will be India and China.
Just look at the news....all you see is the government spending, its spending because companies have no money, soon, the governement will have no money and no credit. Why would investors put $ in a country that is in debt? Money will go to India, China and other emerging markets.

[spence]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

theres no money in green, only expense. Technology? that will be India and China.
Just look at the news....all you see is the government spending, its spending because companies have no money, soon, the governement will have no money and no credit. Why would investors put $ in a country that is in debt? Money will go to India, China and other emerging markets.

Wrong on all counts.

1) There is a ton of cash out there held by investors too afraid to risk it. When people have real solutions to solve the world's gigantic energy needs they will invest and make a killing.

2) The government already has no money.

3) The United States has the best IP protection, legal system and innovative culture in the world. This isn't going to change in the next 20-30 years regardless of what China and India do.

Investors abroad still see the US Dollar as a lower risk currency, even with our trillions in debt. It's because for the near future well still are the heart of the global economy.

-spence

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by spence

Wrong on all counts.

1) There is a ton of cash out there held by investors too afraid to risk it. When people have real solutions to solve the world's gigantic energy needs they will invest and make a killing.

2) The government already has no money.

3) The United States has the best IP protection, legal system and innovative culture in the world. This isn't going to change in the next 20-30 years regardless of what China and India do.

Investors abroad still see the US Dollar as a lower risk currency, even with our trillions in debt. It's because for the near future well still are the heart of the global economy.

-spence

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

[Bronko]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

So when it comes to flag burning, troop bashing or liberal anti-war rhetoric we live in the greatest country in the world bar-none.

But when the economy suffers a serious blow and we are mired in a major recession, we are a ship of fools that can't get out of our own way? We are a populous of un-skilled, un-inspired goons who are intellectually inferior?


You need to take a deep breath.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by Bronko

So when it comes to flag burning, troop bashing or liberal anti-war rhetoric we live in the greatest country in the world bar-none.

But when the economy suffers a serious blow and we are mired in a major recession, we are a ship of fools that can't get out of our own way? We are a populous of un-skilled, un-inspired goons who are intellectually inferior?


You need to take a deep breath.

theres no politics or pride in economics, theres data. Look at the data. Look at what we produce, look at what we owe, look at we save. Look at what got us where we are today. Where a consumer nation thats out of money.
Let me put it this way, 20yrs ago there were no "yuppie" fishing stores live SWE, guys didnt spend 600+ on a fsihing reel, 25+ on plugs, etc. All of that is the result of the 90s boom, easy credit. Those days are done, period. Argue all you want and many have, but noone is showing me DATA to prove me wrong. I have seen a lot of data suggesting that this countries opportunites for growth, a relatively stead increase since WWII is over. Like it or not.

[Joe]

We make whatever we want that is viable and there are virtually no barriers to entry into the marketplace. We have the most supportive economy for entrepreneurship and the largest, most open, vibrant economy in the world. Even now.

The strength of the American Economy is that we are free to act upon any viable idea we may have so long as we have the capital to enter the market. TVs, Phones - that stuff is not viable to make here, but there is a lot of stuff that is and if you look around you'll see a lot of people making and selling things.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by Joe

We make whatever we want that is viable and there are virtually no barriers to entry into the marketplace. We have the most supportive economy for entrepreneurship and the largest, most open, vibrant economy in the world. Even now.

The strength of the American Economy is that we are free to act upon any viable idea we may have so long as we have the capital to enter the market. TVs, Phones - that stuff is not viable to make here, but there is a lot of stuff that is and if you look around you'll see a lot of people making and selling things.

sounds good Joe, but reality is, we invent something, then ship it overseas for them to produce, sure the stock of the inventing/owning company goes up, but the production is done elsewhere. Prove me wrong? What major consumer product is made here? Van Stalls? Clothes? Penn reels? Cars? Corn? what??? You might say computers, but you'd be wrong, all those parts are made in Korea and Mexico.

I dont know what everyone here does for a lving and I dont want to sound pompous, but I am informed working for one of the largest investment companies in the world. I know Wee Wee/Poo poo works in this industry too. Search his posts, he is as negative as I am. I believe he suggested putting all your money in gold bars in your basement. This is NOT a standard recession, you guys need to take a step back and LOOK.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

TPI, which is your HOME STATE pushed alot on the CF engineering front of wind turbine blades.

You should drive by there and look at the number of blade molds they have in the lot, definitely more than when they were primarily building boats.

ps: They're hiring STILL.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by likwid

TPI, which is your HOME STATE pushed alot on the CF engineering front of wind turbine blades.

You should drive by there and look at the number of blade molds they have in the lot, definitely more than when they were primarily building boats.

ps: They're hiring STILL.

you're looking in front of you and not ahead. Who is a major component of their work? The Military. Lets see, economic downturn, democratic president. So, do you see an increase in defense spending? Layoffs will be on the way.
And blade molds in the lot, means unused inventory. talk to me when the lot is empty.

[spence]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

The auto companies don't suffer from a lack of innovation, they suffer from labor unions and a giagantic oil lobby that stifles innovation domestically.

There never has been much high-tech manufactured in the USA, but there's plenty of product design going on, and that's where the innovation really happens...and a lot of it right here.

-spence

[Back Beach]

Originally Posted by spence

The auto companies don't suffer from a lack of innovation, they suffer from labor unions and a giagantic oil lobby that stifles innovation domestically.
-spence

Add slowing consumer demand and obsolesence to the list too. We're basically looking at a %$%$%$%$ty business from the top down. Bailouts prolong the inevitable. I also read many of the UAW members receive almost 80% of their compensation when they're laid off too. They need to "save" these companies so the union hacks can survive. It has nothing to do with changing the business model or product.

[The Dad Fisherman]

I don't believe anything that nitwit says.....It was just something I thought about in passing.

[Raven]

yep but it addresses the whole Nostradamus prediction thing...

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Raven

yep but it addresses the whole Nostradamus prediction thing...

I prefer tea leaves.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

I don't believe anything that nitwit says.....It was just something I thought about in passing.

thats not nice to say about me.

[The Dad Fisherman]

Nah...that not true....Sometimes I believe what you say

[Back Beach]

Originally Posted by BigFish

It has officially been determined that we are in a recession........and have been since December 2007!!! Guess, as I speculated earlier, they were just afraid to use the word!

Economists typically call recessions looking backwards with past data. This time is no different. The long term economic cycle typically has 5 years of expansion followed by two years or so of pullback.
Yeah, we entered a recession 13 months ago, no surprise here. The market recovery usually precedes main street recovery by six months or so. If any of this holds true, it will be roughly mid summer before we pull out market wise and begin a new uptrend, and this time next year when RI Jimmy starts buying stocks again...
Don't any of you guys remember 2001-2003? It wasn't all that long ago things were real ugly, followed by a five year growth spurt.

[Nebe]

uggg.

[Raven]

no more Tuna in 5 years either

all gone to Sushi

[BigFish]

I agree Back Beach! I see things being worse between now and April.....the worst will be between New Years and when Obama takes office......I can see the stock market in the 7000 range for a period and mortgage rates going below 5% before the upturn. Mind you between Jan.1 and the 18th is about the time they make a decision on the "bailout" for the automakers and if it goes through it will send the market down hard! Watch!

[striperman36]

it's not going to be pretty either way until at least 100 days after the 20th. So that makes it for me time to be fishing again.
Maybe gas will be under a buck a gallon so I can afford it, since I may not qualify for that WPA job.

[EarnedStripes44]

Originally Posted by Raven

no more Tuna in 5 years either

all gone to Sushi

the waters off Somalia abound with Tuna. Thats the silver lining in all this piracy stuff. The factory trawlers stay away.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by Back Beach

:
Don't any of you guys remember 2001-2003? It wasn't all that long ago things were real ugly, followed by a five year growth spurt.

yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs.

[Back Beach]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs.

Good points and I agree. I also look at the pessimism which usually accomodates market bottoms. Not sure its peaked yet, but its getting there.

Ever read Peter Lynch's book where he refers to the Mayan empire? They continually look backwards and worry about the same problems recurring, only to be impacted by something completely different? They built homes in the trees and suffered through fire.....then built homes in rock to avert fire, but were then destroyed by earthquakes....built homes near water to avert earthquakes, but were destoyed by floods, etc. I think he concludes by saying the "next big anything" usually turns out to be something different. In other words, this won't be the next 1929, but something different.
You mention perception and consumer confidence being factors in the early 90's. These two things have a lot to do with the current mire we're in now, too. Commercial lending is actually up over the last year according to a report one of my financial planners forwarded me. Consumers will follow at some point.

[Joe]

Back when I was on welfare during the Clinton Administration, I went to night school at Bryant. I can remember the professors saying that government should increase spending to stimulate an economy in recession. They had a bunch of small letters after their names and they wore tweed and were very convincing.

[striperman36]

Yup, thats the way to do it.
But, we are just printing money.
we don't have any value behind it.

[Nebe]

just sold something!!...

[EarnedStripes44]

...and industrial purse seiners

[RIJIMMY]

give this a read
We are "solving" the symptoms by increasing the problem. Its like feeding a fat kid candy to lose weight.
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/arti...eyhappy/124971