Stock Assessments

[Sea Dangles]

I have been trying to restrain myself as this phrase has been beaten in recent discussions regarding the future of striped bass.Who is it that makes these assessments and how much credibility have they proven they deserve.Is it like Obama telling us we are out of a recession,or is it an honest fact based report? I have listened for at least a couple years as seasoned old school anglers such as Jim White,Clammer, Numby,Afterhours,Sauerkraut(I could go on)tell us history is repeating itself with the demise of the bass.For some reason this isn't good enough for some folks (bossman)to take notice of their warnings.I like to think the glass is half full also,but I don't have to see the tree fall to know it made a noise.How accurate have stock assessments historically been?Is there any way to attatch previous reports for any species to validate their findings?

[Raven]

i read it all .... but don't know the answers

however, i do see additional strains being put on the Resource

pollution in the Chesapeake waters

more Poaching

By catching ->mortality's

higher food prices and fuel prices making
bringing home the bacon more important

More interest in the sport with HUGE fishing stores
opening in MASS and Connecticut

the list goes on.... so i can understand the pressure.

[JohnnySaxatilis]

its not in complete crisis mode yet. But they deffinately know something is terribly wrong due to landing reports, they are WAY down in recent years. That old quote from 2006 that "overfishing is not taking place" aint guna cut it nemore.... Just did a paper on it and the effects the trawlers are having on the forage species. here's a press release I used as a cited sources Some scary numbers in there.......

http://www.asmfc.org/press_releases/...ddendumIII.pdf

[Sea Flat]

Originally Posted by Sea Dangles

Who is it that makes these assessments and how much credibility have they proven they deserve.How accurate have stock assessments historically been?

I know that one way they get a good handle on the population is the "young of the Year" index. They take a net and sweep it through the spawning area and see how many baby bass are in it. In normal years, I believe the number is somewhere in the 3-4 range which many would consider to be a bit too small. That number means 3-4 baby fish within a certain area. In the late 90's or very early 2000's the number went up to the low teens and then a few years later the fishing was as good as it had been in many years. Now, the YOY index numbers are much lower and the fishing is declining too. I wish I had the book I got this from handy so I could be 100% accurate, but I truly believe that this one method is pretty good at letting us know how we are doing in terms of the fishery.

Obviously a catch count would help too which to me is impossible to count considering the recreational fishermen, bycatch and any black market sales. No way to track those numbers of dead/caught fish. All I know is that the MA commercial fleet did not even come close to their quota last year which should be a huge red flag that things are taking a turn for the worse.

Legislation is in the works to lower the amount of fish allowed to be caught to sustain the fishery. Hopefully it happens soon. I think the changes can be made to maintain a good fishery and avoid a massive decline like the 80's.

[Bronx68]

Have you seen this video/article yet? This has to be causing some damage to the striper fishery.
Coastal Fisheries Reform Group: NC Striper Slaughter; The Untold Numbers and Video!

[UserRemoved]

Problem is MUCH deeper than stripers. It's fish management as a whole. When I first started fishing there was peanuts in the fall that almost stretched across Vineyard sound. Not so or even remotely close anymore.

JohnR has said this for a long time and I agree. Fix the bait fix the fish..

[JohnR]

The stock assessment - however flawed - is one of the key criteria that is used to determine the health of the fishery. It is loosely consistent data accumulated over the years from many different sources that attempts to paint a picture of the health of the stocks for fisheries management.

Is it accurate? Most likely not. But it is something that has been charted over the years to indicate the state of the stock.

Trying to break down the stock by year classes, gender, who's catching what and where, that assessment is the one big thing that triggers who can keep how many and from where, whether commercial landings, estimated impact by kept fish and guestimated mortality by us even doing C&R.

Many of us for years have wanted to err on the side of caution (maintain 1 recreational fish @ 36 for example) and have gone to meetings to fight commercial increases (recent fall 2010 for example, Mass commercial increase in 2006 as another example). Some people propose Game Fish status (I am not one even though I don't fish commercially, I think everyone should take cuts).

The stock assessment, how good or bad the assessment or how good or bad the results, is probably the key indicator of the state of the fishery. At least in regards to what will come down by way of regulations / regulation changes.

For a real significant brain cramp, read this novel explanation on stock assessments: http://www.asmfc.org/publications/Gu...ssessments.pdf

[MAKAI]

Do you really need the nitwits on TV standing out in the blizzard to tell you it's snowing outside.
Look around and let your eyes tell you what's up.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by MAKAI

Do you really need the nitwits on TV standing out in the blizzard to tell you it's snowing outside.
Look around and let your eyes tell you what's up.

Yoo talkin' to me?

No, I don't need those nitwits to tell me its snowing, but I do need a stock assessment to tell show the nitwits managerial concerns influenced managers in fisheries management that the problem we've stated is happening is now being documented.

Striper Cup isn't the problem. It is one itsy bitsy, teentweeny concerning thread in a whole bigazzed cloth of problems.

[Clammer]

What I do know for a fact ...... that they wanted to increase the commercial / based on the current stock ::: that was LAST year .Ha HA

then they said was status quo ; So everything will stay the same /both commercial & rec .

wam / bam .. TU thunder Gods . all of a sudden ................... they decide its time to clamp down on the illegal netting in Maryland .......which they knew about for years /
At approx. the same time / they addressed the draggers .slamming the breeders off Virginia .......which has been going on since they were found / add the XL charter & rec fleet that is also hitting the same pot of gold .
But it should be of no surprize / think about who is doing it & have been doing it for years ......
Its the saltwater verson on running moonshine .................................. everyone in all levels of the state & some nationial were aware of it ..... but @ the right price ... just drive a different road .
Now jump to 2011 .......... OHHHHHHHHHH we might have F $%^&*( up ...... S T R I P E R S are in trouble ;; up & down the east coast ................no #^&#^&#^&#^& ya #$%^&* #$%^&*(

Monday RI had a meeting to look into / listen to & down the road /shortly make a change in the level of fines & penalities for violation of one that is Stripers fishing .
It will include / fishing without a license / both r & c
undersize both r & c
over your limit both R & C
illegal harvesting both r & C
Illegal selling both in & out of state // both r & c

any finally . there will be a coast wide change in both fisheries / From Maine to the Carolina,s BY 2012 .

Better late than never ;

Now if they would only [MAKE] the farmers [not ask] to clean up their #^&#^&#^&#^& / on all sides of the Chessapeak ;;

Lets hope we never get to the day .... when we tell our war stories // they start off {{ son back in the day / when there was a awesome fish called a STRIPER }


:f ishin:

[MAKAI]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Yoo talkin' to me?

No, I don't need those nitwits to tell me its snowing, but I do need a stock assessment to tell show the nitwits managerial concerns influenced managers in fisheries management that the problem we've stated is happening is now being documented.

Striper Cup isn't the problem. It is one itsy bitsy, teentweeny concerning thread in a whole bigazzed cloth of problems.

Not at all.
I feel that while waiting for the " proof " of science, we lag behind the facts of life. Gotta make sure our long term data is right.

Kinda of like me saying, " Hey John ! Your house is on fire. "
" No, It's not too bad, let's see what happens, it may go out. " A little time goes by, " Holy $*%# I gotta call the Fire Dept !!

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme " Mark Twain.

We have to have a beer or two sometime.

[Mike P]

As flawed as it may be, the Maryland YOY index has been used as one of the prime stock assessment tools to manage the fishery for a long time. The data didn't lie in the mid to late 70s, when there were a series of very poor recruitment indices---under 2.0. That's why the fishery crashed in the early 80s. People started seeing a predominance of bigger fish in the late 70s, and very few schoolies in their usual haunts. Within 5 years, some people were lucky to catch 5 bass a year. The managers didn't put any meaningful catch restrictions in place when there was a chance to do something about it, during the period of very poor YOY indices. And in fact, ASMFC didn't even exist--there was no coastwide management authority, and individual states were unwilling to take action. Massachusetts's idea of "conservation" was replacing an unlimited bag/16" fork length reg with a 4 fish per day at 16" and unlimited 24" reg.

The moratorium and the 36" limit were put into place to protect a moderately successful year class. I think it was 1982's year class. That year's YOY index was around 8.0, as I recall. We started seeing bass come back in decent numbers by 1986/1987. By 1989, the YOY index jumped up to 26.0 or better, and that one year's YOY index was used as justification to lift the moratorium and lower size limits.

We've now had about 4 consecutive mediocre YOY indices from Maryland. If ASMFC is serious about a 40% across the board mortality reduction, that should keep us from the brink. I would hope that they would be pro-active about it, and not wait until a crisis happens. The striped bass recovery is one of the Feds' very few fisheries management success stories, and for political reasons alone, one would think that they'd not want to #^&#^&#^&#^& it up.

As far as the overall stock's health--at the bottom, in the early 80s, they estimated the coastwide biomass at 6 million fish. While we may be down from the estimated 50 million fish of a few years ago, the assessments that I've seen still place the overall biomass at over 30 million fish. There may be more to why we're not seeing as many inshore as we did in the recent past years--climate changes bringing warmer offshoots from the Gulf Stream into coastal waters, lack of bait, and so on. Every year you hear reports from tuna guys about how there are so damn many bass out in the EEZ that they can't avoid them.

But there is no doubt that we're on a downward cycle, and changes have to be made across the board. Reduction of the Mass commercial quota by 40% by reducing the quota from 1.1 million pounds to around 600,000 pounds, and amending the rec regs. If you want to keep the same commercial season, reduce the daily bag limit to 15 from 30, and eliminate the Sunday fishery. With this year's gas prices, it won't be worth leaving the dock on Sunday anyway. Either go with a slot limit, or raise the size limit to 34" for both recs and comms. And, one fish a day. 2 fish @ 28" was the worst thing that ever happened to the bass, IMO.

[Pt.JudeJoe]

Hey man I just had an idea.... Every 5 years heave a moratorium on striped bass. No bass taken at all every 5 th year. Now go play nice.

[MAKAI]

[QUOTE=Mike P;
As far as the overall stock's health--at the bottom, in the early 80s, they estimated the coastwide biomass at 6 million fish. While we may be down from the estimated 50 million fish of a few years ago, the assessments that I've seen still place the overall biomass at over 30 million fish.

But and a BIG BUT as I've said before, It now takes 3 times the spawning biomass to produce the same YOY as it did 20 yrs ago.
For a myriad of reasons I'm sure.
The cynic in me thinks this issue is beyond fishermen alone to affect.

[stripermaineiac]

Joe that's not that bad of an idea as long as it's coastwide.Comms and recs alike.

[afterhours]

and what about the mycobacteriosis which infects 75% of the chesapeake breeding stock...oh yeah it may be fatal.

[sully12rng]

I feel as if I have been seeing my personal seasons get worse over the past few years. Nothing solid but I feel my personal catch is down even with more fishing.

[MakoMike]

The striped bass is in trouble again.

During the 1980s, wildlife managers said these big, full-bodied fish — favorites of anglers along the East Coast — were overfished. So they laid down severe catch limits. The population recovered, and fishing resumed in what is considered one of conservation's great success stories.

But now catches are down again, and some biologists say the problem may not be overfishing this time: It could be the weather.


EnlargeMaggie Starbard/NPR
Nearly 70 percent of the country's striped bass come to the Chesapeake Bay to lay their eggs, including inlets like this one, where the Choptank and Tred Avon rivers meet.
Brad Burns, who started fishing for striped bass in 1960, says he and his fellow anglers, Stripers Forever, are singing the blues about striped bass.

"What we hear from people that go striped bass fishing — the general trend very decidedly is down," Burns says.

Stripers live in the ocean as well as in estuaries and some rivers. Burns says members have been reporting fewer fish for the past five years. As for the cause?

"Well I don't know," he says, "and I don't know that anybody does."

A New Theory On Fish Levels

But Bob Wood thinks he might. Wood is a biologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He studies his fish in a boxy little building on the Maryland shore of the Chesapeake Bay. In the semi-darkness, you can make out several vats with bubbling oxygen hoses. Each vat is home to striped bass or white perch, two species that spawn in the bay. This is where Wood's team studies the fish to figure out why striper numbers go up and down.

They thought they had the 1980s crash figured out: "The striped bass crashed because of overfishing," says Wood, "and then it recovered because we closed the fishery."

But now Wood has a new idea that's just taking shape. "This research, at first glance, seems to call that into question," he says.

This idea focuses not so much on fish but on the weather, and especially the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the AMO. The AMO is a mashup of wind and ocean currents, a flip-flop that happens every 35 years or so in the North Atlantic.


EnlargeMaggie Starbard/NPR
Bob Wood (left) and Ed Martino are researchers at NOAA's Cooperative Oxford Laboratory in Oxford, Md. They think a weather pattern in the North Atlantic called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is responsible for wide swings in fish populations.
"Circulation changes in a way that warms the entire basin," Wood explains. "And you can imagine if you warm the entire North Atlantic basin, you're changing the weather because the air and circulation patterns above the ocean are affected."

Ed Martino, a fisheries scientist who works with Wood at NOAA, says when the AMO shift happens, it affects the local weather along the Atlantic Coast.

"You are talking about differences in temperature and precipitation, and therefore river flow or salinity, ultimately all affecting the base of the food chain," says Martino. "It's the way that the climate affects the microscopic plankton." Plankton are tiny plants and animals in the water, and that's what young stripers eat.

Understanding The Weather-Fish Relationship

Here's how Wood and his team think the AMO is messing with fish food. When it's in a warm phase, springtime along the East Coast actually tends to be wet and cool — more rain, more water, more food. In the years following that phase, striper numbers tend to go up. Then the AMO flips — drier springs, less rain, less food. After a lag, it looks like striper numbers start to decline.

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Wood says the past 100 years of fishing records show that very trend. And currently?

"It hasn't been so good in say the last five years," Wood says. "And it just so happens this is also the time when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation seems to be switching phase."

Wood suspects it's switching into a "bad for stripers" phase, and he thinks it was also a down cycle that caused the striper crash in the 1980s. When that cycle ended, stripers recovered — not just owing to the fishing limits but because the weather bcame more favorable.

Janet Nye, who studies fish stocks for the Environmental Protection Agency, thinks this research could help fisheries managers.

"We would be able to say, 'OK, for the next 35 years or so we're pretty certain that the AMO is going to be more positive or warm,' and we would be able to say, 'These are the fish that respond favorably to that — you might be able to fish those more,' " she says.

Conversely, fish less in a down cycle, Wood says. "If we know that there is this cycle coming up," he says, "a trend that we are beginning to enter, we can keep that in our heads as we set limits."

If Wood's research is correct, it may take tougher catch limits to bring striper numbers back up again.

[piemma]

I have read a great deal about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. There definitely is something to it.
The facts remain that we are are on a downslide and a reduction in size and bag limit per day would not hurt.

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by piemma

I have read a great deal about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. There definitely is something to it.
The facts remain that we are are on a downslide and a reduction in size and bag limit per day would not hurt.

Yup---cyclical periods of scarcity have been noticed in the past, when fishing pressure on bass was a fraction of what it is now. Keep in mind that most of the bass clubs folded around the turn of the century (the 19th to 20th, that is) when bass became so scarce that members started dropping out.

[numbskull]

Blame it on the weather.
Good reason to go on killing 40% of the population each year.
And as long as we are careful to ignore the obvious and keep overestimating the population we can really kill even more.
Thank god for science.
Yup, it's the effing weather to blame yet again.

[numbskull]

On a more serious note, 4-6 years ago we had enough striped bass around to ensure great fishing for decades.

Where are they now. All offshore? Please.

The weather did not kill those fish.
Fishery management did.....with our help.

Blaming the weather for bad fishery management and fishermen's greed is a pathetic and destructive rationalization.

Weather did not kill the fish we had. We did (some much, much more than others).
If we had not killed those fish, weather would not be a big concern now.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by numbskull

On a more serious note, 4-6 years ago we had enough striped bass around to ensure great fishing for decades.

Where are they now. All offshore? Please.

The weather did not kill those fish.
Fishery management did.....with our help.

Blaming the weather for bad fishery management and fishermen's greed is a pathetic and destructive rationalization.

Weather did not kill the fish we had. We did (some much, much more than others).
If we had not killed those fish, weather would not be a big concern now.

Maybe the weather would be a factor maybe it isn't - we really don't know. We DO know that increased rec pressure and increased commercial take contributed to what we are seeing. We do suspect that forage issues contribute to this. Hopefully the reg changes being bandied about for 2012 with a 40% reduction to the allowed mortality will become true and some more serious conservation can take place.

[numbskull]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Maybe the weather would be a factor maybe it isn't - we really don't know. .

Yes we do know.
That is my point.

The weather may have a lot to do with the failure of recent year classes, but the weather did not kill the fish we had.

WE, not the weather, are responsible for the current status of the stock.

WE, did it with the blessing of the fishery managers.

When breeding conditions are ideal, a small population can carry the stock.
When breeding conditions are poor, you need a large population to carry the stock, since spawning success is much lower.

We had a large population, now we don't. WE, with fishery management's blessing, killed those fish.

Blaming the weather for where we are now is a cop-out.

[Sea Dangles]

My next door neighbor has a house in Sandwich and loves to walk the canal.He starts at the boat basin and gets in his 4 or 5 miles on a regular basis. He tells me yesterday about the fishermen with six cows lined up behind them on the cell phone."Wake up Jr. please dear,and you come down too.I need three people here so I don't get arrested...."He says he gets asked all the time if he wants a fish by complete strangers just so they can kill more.A real thrill it must be!


Soon this talk of "Let's take back the Cup!" will be replaced by "I can't find the fish." The cameraderie that used to be known as Fishing Legs on this site apparently isn't enough without a Cup to hold in the air and pose for pics next to.The great causes which benefit sick children or fight cruel disease isn't enough either.

So the Bossman has the ball in his court and will disregard all the recent "favorable" stock assessments and wait for next year again to make a decision to pull the plug.Don't want to miss out on all the cameraderie. Age and wisdom seem to dictate common sense on this board.Some folks have never participated in the Cup,some have dropped out due to the writing on the wall.I have a sense they won't regret that decision.I will make the prediction that some day Bossman will regret his decision to lead his charges in search of a victory that will contribute to the defeat of the fish his site is named for.Tough choice.

[MAKAI]

Originally Posted by numbskull

Yes we do know.
That is my point.

The weather may have a lot to do with the failure of recent year classes, but the weather did not kill the fish we had.

WE, not the weather, are responsible for the current status of the stock.

WE, did it with the blessing of the fishery managers.

When breeding conditions are ideal, a small population can carry the stock.
When breeding conditions are poor, you need a large population to carry the stock, since spawning success is much lower.

We had a large population, now we don't. WE, with fishery management's blessing, killed those fish.

Blaming the weather for where we are now is a cop-out.

"We have met the enemy, and he is us" Pogo 1970

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Sea Dangles

My next door neighbor has a house in Sandwich and loves to walk the canal.He starts at the boat basin and gets in his 4 or 5 miles on a regular basis. He tells me yesterday about the fishermen with six cows lined up behind them on the cell phone."Wake up Jr. please dear,and you come down too.I need three people here so I don't get arrested...."He says he gets asked all the time if he wants a fish by complete strangers just so they can kill more.A real thrill it must be!


Soon this talk of "Let's take back the Cup!" will be replaced by "I can't find the fish." The cameraderie that used to be known as Fishing Legs on this site apparently isn't enough without a Cup to hold in the air and pose for pics next to.The great causes which benefit sick children or fight cruel disease isn't enough either.

So the Bossman has the ball in his court and will disregard all the recent "favorable" stock assessments and wait for next year again to make a decision to pull the plug.Don't want to miss out on all the cameraderie. Age and wisdom seem to dictate common sense on this board.Some folks have never participated in the Cup,some have dropped out due to the writing on the wall.I have a sense they won't regret that decision.I will make the prediction that some day Bossman will regret his decision to lead his charges in search of a victory that will contribute to the defeat of the fish his site is named for.Tough choice.

OK, I'll bite.

Funny. I don't recall seeing you at any fisheries meeting over the years. I don't recall seeing you calling for conservation until really late. And I don't recall you making any positive calls for reduction unless it has been to stir the pot.

Short version. Cup or no cup will have no real impact on the problem with the fisheries. As anglers we can continue to argue to make it a game fish or not, and stay divided. We can continue to blame it on the "Bossman" or the this group or that group. We can continue to point fingers at The Other Guy.

OR we can work together to reduce the pressure on the fish through the one single place that regulations are determined - good or bad - the fisheries management councils. I would have liked to see that process happen 2 years ago. It didn't. That process should happen this year in time to impact 2012 regulations. When those meetings happen, I hope to see you at a meeting Chris. (Really, I hope to see you there).

Ahhh, and while I would like to have more fun in the weeds, work beckons.

[JohnR]

Numbskull - I agree - WE are the problem.

WE, as in:

Commercial
Recreational
Charter
Ultralite fisher
47 trebble plugged lure dude
Clam tosser
Ell fisher
Fly Guy

Where this gets addressed is fisheries management. Good or bad.

Weather may have an impact as discussed in that article - THAT is what we don't know.

[numbskull]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Where this gets addressed is fisheries management. Good or bad.

EXACTLY.

And that has obviously been bad.

If you set sail for Bermuda in a 16 foot boat in November and a storm comes and you drown, is the weather to blame?

You can blame the weather for the lack of fish, but good management would have planned for bad weather, and they didn't.

So here we are.
Put the blame where it belongs.

[piemma]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Numbskull - I agree - WE are the problem.

WE, as in:

Commercial
Recreational
Charter
Ultralite fisher
47 trebble plugged lure dude
Clam tosser
Ell fisher
Fly Guy

Where this gets addressed is fisheries management. Good or bad.

Weather may have an impact as discussed in that article - THAT is what we don't know.

Well said.
I really hope I am wrong about the way things are going. I posted a few days ago that this year will tell the tale. If, at the end of the year, the majority of the guys have a worse year than last year then we will know that the slippery slope that we started on is now a full blown slide to oblivion for the species.

Time will tell.