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Political Threads This section is for Political Threads - Enter at your own risk. If you say you don't want to see what someone posts - don't read it :hihi:

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Old 06-20-2011, 09:03 PM   #1
justplugit
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"Recovery Summer"

Let's see, it's over a year now that the President's" Recovery Summer" program
was supposed to drop unemployment below %8 and the 2009 1.6 Trillion
"Stimulus" program would bring it down to 6.8% by now.
With unemployment still at 9.1% neither plan is working.
What now?

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Old 06-20-2011, 09:10 PM   #2
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Curious where your numbers came from.

-spence
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Old 06-21-2011, 04:39 AM   #3
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he'll have it

during the summer of 2013
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Old 06-21-2011, 06:37 AM   #4
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To quote ANY Liberal Progressive

"The (insert program name here) would have worked but we didn't have enough money."

May be applied in virtually any situation...

“It’s not up to the courts to invent new minorities that get special protections,” Antonin Scalia
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Old 06-21-2011, 06:40 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence View Post
Curious where your numbers came from.

-spence
From my Congressman, Scott Garret.

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Old 06-23-2011, 10:45 AM   #6
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Fed reduced it's forcast of unemployment to 8.6% -8.9% by years end.
Two months ago they had forcast 8.4%- 8.7%.

Obama joked last week that there wasn't as many "shovel ready jobs"
ready as he thought. Ha ha. Immelt laughed too.

I'd like to see how funnie it would have been if he was speaking in front
of a union hall audience.
Real jokester.

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Old 06-23-2011, 11:30 AM   #7
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Every speech the man gives is "Shovel Ready"

“It’s not up to the courts to invent new minorities that get special protections,” Antonin Scalia
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Old 06-23-2011, 12:20 PM   #8
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Quote:
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Every speech the man gives is "Shovel Ready"
...That is awesome.

applies to pretty much any of them

"If you're arguing with an idiot, make sure he isn't doing the same thing."
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Old 06-23-2011, 02:42 PM   #9
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Quote:
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Curious where your numbers came from.

-spence
The federal government.Its public knowledge and is a fact.

Obama's also accummulated more debt than all previous presidents before him combined.This also comes from the feds and is a fact.Literally trillions that there is no way to pay back.

I honor no party whatsover but you guys here who worship Obama need to let it go and admit it was mistake to have even voted for him.There's no shame in admitting you were wrong.

Obama's making that dope before him actually look smart.....nuke-u-ler might actually become a word!

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Old 06-23-2011, 05:51 PM   #10
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The federal government.Its public knowledge and is a fact.
The quotes were about a 1.6 T "Stimulus" program which just isn't fact...

-spence
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Old 06-23-2011, 06:54 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by basswipe View Post
Obama's also accummulated more debt than all previous presidents before him combined.This also comes from the feds and is a fact.Literally trillions that there is no way to pay back.
Do you have the article that said this? I heard it wasn't true.
Thanks
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Old 06-23-2011, 06:58 PM   #12
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Do you have the article that said this? I heard it wasn't true.
Thanks
It's certainly not true, unless you give Obama credit for all the debt that Bush and Reagan racked up also.

Actually, if you look back a century you'll find that Ike was probably the only Republican that has stats to back the rhetoric.

-spence
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Old 06-23-2011, 07:11 PM   #13
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All I know is the US economy sux, and most the the globe does too.
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Old 06-23-2011, 07:20 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence View Post
The quotes were about a 1.6 T "Stimulus" program which just isn't fact...

-spence
Spence, the actual number is 1.16 Trillion and coming from Rep. Garret as Vice Chairman of the House Budget Comm.
and a member of the House Financial Services Comm. that # would be pretty accurate.

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Old 06-23-2011, 08:43 PM   #15
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I think you're confusing the defect with "stimulus" spending. The actual stimulus package was around 700B over two years. Most of the defect in 2009 was inherited, had McCain been elected it would have been nearly or just as big.

Post a link or check your facts
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Old 06-24-2011, 03:25 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence View Post
The quotes were about a 1.6 T "Stimulus" program which just isn't fact...

-spence
Spence, the actual number is 1.16 Trillion and coming from Rep. Garret as Vice Chairman of the House Budget Comm.
and a member of the House Financial Services Comm. that # would be pretty accurate.
-justplugit[/QUOTE]


Real Cost of Stimulus Plan? Almost $1.2 Trillion
Report January 29, 2009 –

Taxpayers will pay much more for the fiscal stimulus than previously revealed – over $1.17 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Most sources have assessed the cost of the stimulus package at approximately $825 billion. But the CBO reports those estimates do not include the cost of the money that must be borrowed to pay for the plan. [Editor's Note: To view the CBO letter reporting on the total cost of the stimulus plan, go here now.]

Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., asked the CBO - the research arm of Congress - to calculate the “money cost” of borrowing the funds needed to fulfill the stimulus projects being sought by congressional Democrats and President Obama. Like every other borrower, the government must pay back borrowed principal plus the interest on its debt.

The CBO responded with a Jan. 27 letter from CBO Director Douglas W. Elmendorf estimating the cost of borrowing the money would be $347.1 billion – or about 42 percent of the cost of the projects. That would push the total cost of the stimulus package to over $1.17 trillion.

Last edited by scottw; 06-24-2011 at 03:42 AM..
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Old 06-24-2011, 03:29 AM   #17
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Quote:

Most of the defect in 2009 was inherited, had McCain been elected it would have been nearly or just as big.

Post a link or check your facts
-spence



the deficit jumped from about $450 billion in 2008 to $1.4 trillion in 2009.

Obama pushed through both an “omnibus” spending bill and the so-called stimulus bill that increased FY2009 spending.

McCain calls on Obama to veto omnibus - "We fought a good fight," Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said on Sunday, conceding that the $410 billion omnibus bill is likely to pass the Senate early next week, but calling on President Obama to veto it.


February 8, 2009
McCain: Stimulus Bill Is "Generational Theft"By Michelle Levi In his sixty-eighth appearance on Face The Nation, Senator John McCain called the stimulus bill heading towards a Senate vote this week "generational theft," and said he could not support the package as-is because of the debt it would create for America.

When asked by host Bob Schieffer if he would support the stimulus plan, the senator replied, "I can't Bob. I can't because I think it is the greatest transfer of not only spending but authority and responsibility to government."





how's that "American Recovery and Renewal" or whatever they called it...working out?????

Jun 22, 5:57 PM (ET)

By PAUL WISEMAN and MARTIN CRUTSINGER

WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy's continuing struggles aren't just confounding ordinary Americans. They've also stumped the head of the Federal Reserve.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters Wednesday that the central bank had been caught off guard by recent signs of deterioration in the economy. And he said the troubles could continue into next year.

"We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting," Bernanke said. He said the weak housing market and problems in the banking system might be "more persistent than we thought."

It was the Fed chief's most explicit warning yet that the economy will face serious challenges next year. For several months, he had said the factors working against economic growth appeared to be "transitory."


The Fed cut its forecast for economic growth this year to a range of 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent from an April forecast of 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent. It also cut its forecast for next year to a range of 3.3 percent to 3.7 percent from an earlier 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent. The Fed also said unemployment would stay higher than it had expected earlier.


I'm sure Obama is "playing this one perfectly" right Spence???

Last edited by scottw; 06-24-2011 at 05:24 AM..
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Old 06-24-2011, 04:03 PM   #18
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Old 06-25-2011, 09:45 AM   #19
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The CBO doesn't include debt service in it's estimates, it was asked to do this separately...but to just tack 10 years of interest on to a 3 year spending plan, without calculating benefits (and the CBO has documented dramatic benefits to GDP) is not an analysis of "true cost". Rather it's a just an attempt to make the bill look larger. Ryan tried to do the same thing when he asked the CBO to make believe all the entitlement spending in the stimulus was permanent so he could claim Obama was proposing a 3.5 Trillion dollar package.

So you can either include debt service with all your cost discussions or none.

As for McCain, whether he would have supported the Stimulus bill or not (he didn't even bother to show up for the vote mind you) isn't really relevant.

Quote:
2008 vs. 2009

The CBO reported in October 2009 reasons for the difference between the 2008 and 2009 deficits, which were approximately $460 billion and $1,410 billion, respectively. Key categories of changes included: tax receipt declines of $320 billion due to the effects of the recession and another $100 billion due to tax cuts in the stimulus bill (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act or ARRA); $245 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and other bailout efforts; $100 billion in additional spending for ARRA; and another $185 billion due to increases in primary budget categories such as Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Defense – including the war effort in Afghanistan and Iraq. This was the highest budget deficit relative to GDP (9.9%) since 1945.[55] The national debt increased by $1.9 trillion during FY2009, versus the $1.0 trillion increase during 2008.[56]

The Obama Administration also made four significant accounting changes to more accurately report the total spending by the Federal government. The four changes were: 1) accounting for the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (”overseas military contingencies”) in the budget rather than through the use of supplemental appropriations; 2) assuming the Alternative Minimum Tax will be indexed for inflation; 3) accounting for the full costs of Medicare reimbursements; and 4) anticipating the inevitable expenditures for natural disaster relief. According to administration officials, these changes will make the debt over ten years look $2.7 trillion larger than it would otherwise appear.[57]
All things considered, I would assume McCain would have offered additional tax cuts as part of a Stimulus package just as Obama did. This doesn't leave a lot of discretionary or additional entitlement spending on the table that would have been avoided. In fact, assuming McCain's tax cuts would have been more equal across the board the chance of revenues being lower is very high.

If you were to consider a McCain Administration making the same accounting changes as Obama, the likelihood of a McCain 2009 budget deficit actually being larger than Obama is a reasonable proposition.

-spence
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Old 06-25-2011, 07:47 PM   #20
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Quote:
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If you were to consider a McCain Administration making the same accounting changes as Obama, the likelihood of a McCain 2009 budget deficit actually being larger than Obama is a reasonable proposition.

-spence
Speculation.

My original question still hasn't been answered.

" Choose Life "
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Old 06-26-2011, 04:39 AM   #21
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Speculation.

My original question still hasn't been answered.
speculation wrapped with absurdities....of course you measure the "stimulus" program by it's total cost, particularly when it was so ineffective...saved some union jobs, created some government jobs, much of it will end up back in Obama's campaign fund...just a little sugar rush for the Obama loyalist...and their children will be paying for it all for quite some time and nothing to show for it economically..no recovery...no reinvestment...just a really bad Act


CBO: Stimulus almost doubled U.S. debt
By: Conn Carroll | Senior Editorial Writer Washington Examiner Follow Him @conncarroll | 06/22/11 11:27 AM

. A new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) finds that President Obama’s economic stimulus program helped nearly double U.S. debt.

The 2011 Long-Term Budget Outlook, released Wednesday morning, reports that the “the combination of automatic budgetary responses” and Obama’s stimulus “had a profound impact on the federal budget.” According to CBO projections, before Obama’s stimulus became law, federal debt equaled 36 percent of GDP and was projected to decline slightly over the next few years. Instead, thanks in large part to the stimulus, debt reached 62 percent of GDP by 2010.

Other lowlights from the report include:

•Debt will reach 70 percent of GDP by the end of this year – the highest percentage since World War II.
•Spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will reach 15 percent of GDP by 2035 – spending on all government programs has averaged 18.5 percent over the past 40 years.
•Total government spending is set to hit 27 percent of GDP by 2035.
•Taxes are set to grow from 19 percent of GDP in 2013, to 23 percent by 2035.
•Americans “at various points on the income scale would pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes than people at the same points do today.”
•The effective marginal tax rate on labor income would rise from about 25 percent now to about 35 percent in 2035.

.............................................
Spence can continue to try to make excuses for this president, it appears to be his forte...but this guy is a COMPLETE disaster

"This repeated failure has nothing to do with the pace or type of spending. Rather, the problem is found in the oft-repeated Keynesian myth that deficit spending “injects new dollars into the economy,” thereby increasing demand and spurring economic growth. According to this theory, government spending adds money to the economy, taxes remove money, and the budget deficit represents net new dollars injected. Therefore, it scarcely matters how the dollars are spent. John Maynard Keynes famously asserted that a government program paying people to dig and then refill ditches(SHOVEL READY JOBS) would provide new income for those workers to spend and circulate through the economy, creating even more jobs and income. Today, lawmakers cling to estimates by Mark Zandi of Economy.com that on average, $1 in new deficit spending expands the economy by roughly $1.50.

If that were true, the record $1.6 trillion in deficit spending over the past fiscal year would have already overheated the economy. Yet despite this spending, which is equal to fully 9 percent of GDP, the economy is expected to shrink by at least 3 percent this fiscal year. If the spending constitutes an injection of “new money” into the economy, we may conclude that, without it, the economy would contract 12 percent — hardly a plausible claim.

If $1.6 trillion in deficit spending failed to slow the economy’s slide, there’s no reason to believe that adding $185 billion — the 2009 portion of the stimulus bill — will suddenly do the trick. But if budget deficits of nearly $2 trillion are insufficient stimulus, how much would be enough? $3 trillion? $4 trillion?

This is no longer a theoretical exercise. The idea that increased deficit spending can cure recessions has been tested, and it has failed. If growing the economy were as simple as expanding government spending and deficits, then Italy, France, and Germany would be the global economic kings. And there would be no reason to stop at $787 billion: Congress could guarantee unlimited prosperity by endlessly borrowing and spending trillions of dollars."

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Old 06-26-2011, 06:00 AM   #22
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oops!

Forecasts for Growth Drop, Some Sharply
Published: Saturday, 25 Jun 2011 | 9:33 AM The New York Times

A drumbeat of disappointing data about consumer behavior, factory sales and weak hiring in recent weeks has prompted economists to ratchet down their 2011 economic forecasts to as little as half what they expected at the beginning of the year.

BUT DON'T WORRY

Bernanke May Try Spurring Economy by Prolonging Stimulus By Joshua Zumbrun and Steve Matthews - Jun 21, 2011 6:23 AM ET

Fed Chief Bernanke Leaves Door Open to Easing If Economy Weakens Further By Scott Lanman and Jeannine Aversa - Jun 23, 2011 12:00 AM ET .

.Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke left the door open to a fresh shot of monetary stimulus should the economic rebound he’s predicting fail to materialize.


Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
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Old 06-26-2011, 10:24 AM   #23
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Quote:
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This is no longer a theoretical exercise. The idea that increased deficit spending can cure recessions has been tested, and it has failed. If growing the economy were as simple as expanding government spending and deficits, then Italy, France, and Germany would be the global economic kings. And there would be no reason to stop at $787 billion: Congress could guarantee unlimited prosperity by endlessly borrowing and spending trillions of dollars."

Bingo, but the controlling egg heads can't see the the forest for the trees.
They think they're so smart that history doesn't apply to them.

Or then again they have a different agenda for America, and it's
not self reliance and individual ingenuity but socialism, which leads to
nothing more than mediocracy.

Either or, we are headed for the ruination of the best form of government ever devised.

Last edited by justplugit; 06-26-2011 at 10:30 AM..

" Choose Life "
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Old 06-26-2011, 10:39 AM   #24
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Speculation.
Not really, my initial assertion that a 2009 McCain presidency would have had a budget deficit nearly as large as Obama's would have been quite likely. That it would be larger is certainly speculation, but not an unreasonable one.

Deconstruct the 2009 numbers and I don't see very much that any Republican could have impacted more than 10-20%. Nobody would have proposed deep across the board cuts during a massive recession. What would have been far more likely are deep tax cuts which would have depressed revenues even further.

Quote:
My original question still hasn't been answered.
Well, first off I think your Rep is misleading you just to make political hay.

Obama didn't promise 8% unemployment. This was a projection (with a large margin of error) based on the current generally accepted baseline which had unemployment peaking at 9%. This baseline was shown to be dramatically off as the recession ended up being much deeper than anticipated...

Additionally, I'm not aware of any Obama statement that unemployment should be 6.8% right now. The only reference to that number I've seen is a conservative who's asserted that had Obama not extended unemployment benefits this is where the rate would be.

While it makes for some good ideological fodder, it premise doesn't seem to be rooted in reality, in fact it's quite absurd.

So I'm not sure what the question really is in context of those numbers...Garret is just playing games with old talking points.

In broader terms...

1) According to the CBO the Stimulus has had a large beneficial impact and by the reckoning of many may have averted a much bigger economic meltdown. People will debate this forever.

2) The projected budget deficits and National debt were caused by both parties. Personally I don't see any solution that doesn't involve both spending cuts and increased taxes.

3) A big reason the unemployment rate isn't dropping further is simply because American businesses have become more productive and the explosive growth that fuels rapid hiring is happening in other parts of the world. This isn't just because we've "shipped jobs overseas", it's because the hiring is taking place close to the action, just like it did in the US in the 1990s.

4) These emerging nations will gradually help the US economy

5) Government investment in growth technologies is a good investment and something I'd like to see Obama do more of

-spence
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Old 06-26-2011, 11:02 AM   #25
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Quote:
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Well, first off I think your Rep is misleading you just to make political hay.

Obama didn't promise 8% unemployment. -spence
Economic Scene- Forecast With Hope Built In
Doug Mills/The New York Times

Timothy Geithner,, Christina Romer, an economist, and Lawrence Summers, the top economics adviser. President Obama’s advisers have been overly optimistic about the jobless rate.

DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: June 30, 2009
WASHINGTON

In the weeks just before President Obama took office, his economic advisers made a mistake. They got a little carried away with hope.

To make the case for a big stimulus package, they released their economic forecast for the next few years. Without the stimulus, they saw the unemployment rate — then 7.2 percent — rising above 8 percent in 2009 and peaking at 9 percent next year. With the stimulus, the advisers said, unemployment would probably peak at 8 percent late this year.

We now know that this forecast was terribly optimistic. The jobless rate has already reached 9.4 percent. On Thursday, the Labor Department will announce the latest number, for June, and forecasters are expecting it to rise further. In concrete terms, the difference between the situation that the Obama advisers predicted and the one that has come to pass is about 2.5 million jobs. It’s as if every worker in the city of Los Angeles received an unexpected layoff notice.

There are two possible explanations that the administration was so wrong. And sorting through them matters a great deal, because they point in opposite policy directions.

1) Total Incompetence
2) Utter Incompetence
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Old 06-26-2011, 11:17 AM   #26
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5) Government investment in growth technologies is a good investment and something I'd like to see Obama do more of

-spence
that is like asking Bernie Maidoff to continue to invest and manage your money for you....
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Old 06-26-2011, 11:20 AM   #27
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If that were true, the record $1.6 trillion in deficit spending over the past fiscal year would have already overheated the economy. Yet despite this spending, which is equal to fully 9 percent of GDP, the economy is expected to shrink by at least 3 percent this fiscal year. If the spending constitutes an injection of “new money” into the economy, we may conclude that, without it, the economy would contract 12 percent — hardly a plausible claim.

If $1.6 trillion in deficit spending failed to slow the economy’s slide, there’s no reason to believe that adding $185 billion — the 2009 portion of the stimulus bill — will suddenly do the trick. But if budget deficits of nearly $2 trillion are insufficient stimulus, how much would be enough? $3 trillion? $4 trillion?

This is no longer a theoretical exercise. The idea that increased deficit spending can cure recessions has been tested, and it has failed. If growing the economy were as simple as expanding government spending and deficits, then Italy, France, and Germany would be the global economic kings. And there would be no reason to stop at $787 billion: Congress could guarantee unlimited prosperity by endlessly borrowing and spending trillions of dollars."
Your author either lacks a 3rd grade education or is just intentionally being deceptive.

-spence
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Old 06-26-2011, 01:06 PM   #28
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Quote:
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Your author either lacks a 3rd grade education or is just intentionally being deceptive.

-spence
does being perpetually wrong make you snippy?

Contributor

Brian Riedl, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation

Brian Riedl is the Grover M. Hermann Fellow for Federal Budgetary Affairs at the Heritage Foundation. Riedl mainly focuses on federal spending trends, appropriations, budget process reform, and budget deficits. He also studies economic growth, tax policy, agriculture spending, antipoverty programs, and long-term entitlement spending trends.

As early as 2002 and 2003, Riedl became one of the first writers to note the beginning of a massive federal spending spree under President Bush, which has since pushed federal spending above $25,000 per household. In 2006, Riedl�s writings helped expose $14 billion in additional domestic spending added to an Iraq bill (including Mississippi's "railroad to nowhere") and the ensuing public backlash forced Congress to strip these funds from the bill. In 2008, Riedl was a leading critic of the farm bill, which was ultimately vetoed by President Bush (although overridden by Congress).

Riedl's budget research has been featured in front-page stories and editorials in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times. He has discussed budget policy on NBC, ABC, CBS, PBS, CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, and C-SPAN. He also participates in the bipartisan "Fiscal Wake-Up Tour," which holds town hall meetings across America focusing on the looming crisis in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Before coming to Heritage in 2001, Riedl worked for then-Gov. Tommy Thompson, former Rep. Mark Green (R-WI), and the Speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly. Riedl holds a bachelor's degree in economics and political science from the University of Wisconsin, and a master's degree in public affairs from Princeton University



let's see your bio Spence
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Old 06-26-2011, 03:01 PM   #29
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Ahh, he has an education...we'll go with intentionally manipulative then.

-spence
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Old 06-26-2011, 03:02 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottw View Post
Economic Scene- Forecast With Hope Built In
Blah, blah, blah...

I've already mentioned this.

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