Merrill Lynch: "We're In A Recession"

[fishpoopoo]

Recession in the US 'has arrived'

The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.

It said that Friday's employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession.

Its view is controversial, with banks such as Lehman Brothers disagreeing.

But a reserve member of the committee that sets US rates warned that it could do little about the below-trend growth expected in the next six months.

"I am concerned that developments on the inflation front will make the Fed's policy decisions more difficult in 2008," Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.

He was referring to the problems faced by the US Federal Reserve, which might want to cut interest rates to avoid a recession, but is worried about inflationary factors such as $100-a-barrel oil.

'Significant decline'

An official ruling on whether the US is in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years.

The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months".

It bases its assessment on final figures on employment, personal income, industrial production and sales activity in the manufacturing and retail sectors.

Merrill Lynch said that the figures showing the jobless rate hitting 5% in December were the final piece in that puzzle.

"According to our analysis, this isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality," the report said.

'Actual downturn'

But NBER president Martin Feldstein denied Merrill's claims.

"I think we're not in a recession now," he told CNBC.

"But I think there is a serious risk that it could get worse and we could see an actual downturn," he added.

Merrill said that the current consensus view on Wall Street that there is a good chance of avoiding a recession is "in denial".

It also objected to the use of euphemistic terms for the state of the economy.

"To say that the backdrop is 'recession like' is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is 'sort of pregnant'," the report said.

Housing figures

There were further signs of the housing slowdown that has sparked off the problems in the US economy in home sale figures.

Pending sales of existing homes fell 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors, which saw its pending sales index drop to 87.6 in November, 19.2% below the point it was at a year ago.

The figures were better than expected, however, because October's index reading was revised upwards from 87.2 to 89.9.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...ss/7176255.stm

[decksweeper]

By definition, doesn't a recession only occur after two negative consecutive quarters of GDP? Which has not happened...

[striperman36]

Has anybody seen their order pipeline contractiing? We have a 3 mos backlog.

Is consumer spending down?

Anyone getting laid off locally in recent weeks?

The only things that continues to loom is the 'sub-prime', housing and oil prices.

Anything else I miss?

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by decksweeper

By definition, doesn't a recession only occur after two negative consecutive quarters of GDP? Which has not happened...

that's the textbook definition.

do you believe in the published nominal GDP figures?

do you believe in the published CPI numbers?

after factoring in "true" inflation, real GDP is closer to negative than you think.

The first real evidence of contraction was last week's ISM report, which showed contraction.

[decksweeper]

It is sort of joke what's not considered into CPI, and I understand how the numbers are often not reality. I just felt for ML to come out and say that was sort of bold.

[wheresmy50]

Originally Posted by decksweeper

By definition, doesn't a recession only occur after two negative consecutive quarters of GDP? Which has not happened...

Stop talking crazy. If you use "that" definition, then everyone would report that situation, if it ever happened, at the same time (i.e. once the numbers were reported). The way to make money in the new biz is to get the scoop, so you need to be a little creative.

If ML thinks 5% unemployment = a recession, and you're a news organization backing a "change" candidate (let's assume that for a second), then this is a perfect story to run on the eve of the the most important primary of the election. If you're not backing said candidate, you still get your scoop.

I don't think everything is perfect with the economy, but we're not in a recession.

[striperman36]

I think there is a downturn. I do not believe, and don't want to believe it is a recession. 2001-2003 was a painful time for me.

Lets click our heels together and 'There is no recession, I wish I was fishing' three times.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by wheresmy50

Stop talking crazy. If you use "that" definition, then everyone would report that situation, if it ever happened, at the same time (i.e. once the numbers were reported). The way to make money in the new biz is to get the scoop, so you need to be a little creative.

If ML thinks 5% unemployment = a recession, and you're a news organization backing a "change" candidate (let's assume that for a second), then this is a perfect story to run on the eve of the the most important primary of the election. If you're not backing said candidate, you still get your scoop.

I don't think everything is perfect with the economy, but we're not in a recession.

I like this guy!

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by wheresmy50

If ML thinks 5% unemployment = a recession...

Last week's unemployment figures rocked the markets.

Anyhoo, recessions aren't measured by unemployment. they're measured by back to back quarters of GDP declines.

You should know that the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) "manufactures" a lot of jobs with "estimates" of job growth. Don't believe me?

http://www.shadowstats.com

[Skitterpop]

and its an election year...statistics don`t lie but people with an agenda using them do ...

I`m not up on all the details nor do I have any specific knowledge of all this but was`nt there a reliable observer who stated what we have coming down the road would be worse than the Great Depression?

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by Skitterpop

and its an election year...statistics don`t lie but people with an agenda using them do ...

I`m not up on all the details nor do I have any specific knowledge of all this but was`nt there a reliable observer who stated what we have coming down the road would be worse than the Great Depression?

After I retire please!!

[Slipknot]

I thought we been in a reccesion for quite a while now

[Backbeach Jake]

Originally Posted by Slipknot

I thought we been in a reccesion for quite a while now

I was thinking the same thing. Wonder what tipped off ML.

[wheresmy50]

Yes, 5% "shocked" a lot of people who were expecting the number to move to 4.8%.

5% is still pretty low in the grand scheme of things, and the unemployment rate is not the biggest problem with our economy, it's the lack of self control of our fellow citicens who bought houses they can't afford and what that could do to consumer spending. Said economic issue will only be eclipsed in the next few years by the health crisis turned economic crisis that is being caused by - yep, a lack of self control.

Just because the box of Twinkies costs $.99 doesn't mean you have to eat them, and just because the bank is willing to write a loan doesn't mean you need to buy the house.

I'm not saying we may not end up in a recession, we're just not there yet - at least using traditional analytical methods.

I love hearing how the GDP, PPI, CPI, unemployment are all bogus. Were they also bogus during Bill's bubble or just now?

[striperman36]

Goldman joined the ML crowd today in declaring the 'R' word.

[fishpoopoo]

Goldman jumps on the recession bandwagon.

Company Bond Risk Jumps to Record as Goldman Predicts Recession

By Hamish Risk and Shannon D. Harrington

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of companies defaulting on their debt rose to a record after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the U.S. economy is probably slipping into recession.

Credit-default swaps tied to U.S. mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. rose to a record, and those for U.K. retailer Marks & Spencer Plc increased to the widest in more than two years. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index and Markit iTraxx Hi Vol index both jumped to the highest since they were created in 2004.

Goldman forecast today that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter from 4.25 percent now. The global default rate on bonds will climb more than fivefold by the end of this year as the economy weakens, Moody's Investors Service said yesterday.

``Contagion jitters are spreading,'' said David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns Cos. in London. ``Things could get a lot worse before they get better. In this environment, the overriding investor strategy should continue to be dominated by risk aversion, safe haven and flight to quality.''

Contracts on the CDX investment-grade index of 125 North America companies jumped 7.25 basis points to 103.5 as of 1:23 p.m. in New York, according to Deutsche Bank AG, for a rise of more than 26 basis points in the first six trading days this year. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Hi Vol index of 30 European investment-grade companies rose 8.5 basis points to 100.5 basis points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Debt Repayment

Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company's ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A rise indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline, the opposite.

Contracts on New York-based Alcoa Inc., the world's third- largest aluminum company, rose 12 basis points to 77 today, according to CMA Datavision in London. The company is scheduled to report earnings after the close of trading today.

Credit-default swaps on Countrywide, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, rose for a second day on concern that rising defaults on home loans and the collapse of the subprime market will force the Calabasas, California-based company into bankruptcy. The company denied it faces bankruptcy.

Default Protection

Sellers of credit-default swaps were demanding 30 percent upfront and 5 percent a year for contracts protecting Countrywide bondholders from default for five years, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group in New York. That compares with 28 percent upfront and 5 percent a year at the close of trading yesterday. The price means it costs $3 million upfront and $500,000 a year to protect Countrywide bonds from default for five years.

Countrywide today said foreclosures doubled to 1.44 percent of unpaid principal in December from 0.7 percent a year earlier at the company's unit that handles billing and processing.

Contracts on Washington Mutual Inc., the largest U.S. savings and loan, climbed 90 basis points to a record 660 basis points, Phoenix prices show.

Concern that the economy will enter a recession is growing after the Labor Department said last week unemployment is at the highest in two years amid the worst housing slump in 27 years.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said in Stockholm today there's a 60 percent or greater chance that the U.S. economy will go into recession this year because of declining home prices and a loss of consumer confidence.

Economic growth will average 1.5 percent in the first six months of 2008, matching the fourth quarter's pace and skirting a recession, a Bloomberg News survey of 62 economists shows.

The Markit LCDX Series 9 index, a gauge of confidence in the U.S. high-yield, high-risk loan market that falls as sentiment worsens, fell 0.3 point to 95.25, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Marks & Spencer

In Europe, credit-default swaps on retailers soared after London-based Marks & Spencer, the U.K.'s biggest clothing retailer, said sales unexpectedly declined.

Contracts on Marks & Spencer jumped 18 basis points to 106 and the company's shares dropped the most in 19 years after revenue fell 2.2 percent at stores open at least a year in the fiscal third quarter.

Credit-default swaps on Paris-based LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world's largest maker of luxury goods, rose 5 basis points to 61.5. U.K. clothing retailer Next Plc increased 16 basis points to 123.5. London airports operator BAA Ltd., which manages 65 duty free outlets, rose 30 basis points to 247.5.

Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-risk, high-yield credit ratings increased 9 basis points to 401 today, according to JPMorgan.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting 10 million euros ($14.7 million) of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.

To contact the reporters on this story: Hamish Risk in London hrisk@bloomberg.net ; Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 9, 2008 13:28 EST

[wheresmy50]

Nothey didn't. Goldman predicted the US would slip into recession in 08, they didn't say we were in one right now.

[RIJIMMY]

one things for sure, my hairline is continuing its reccesion.

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

one things for sure, my hairline is continuing its reccesion.

Where a hat on windy days!!!

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by wheresmy50

Nothey didn't. Goldman predicted the US would slip into recession in 08, they didn't say we were in one right now.

i've got a copy of the first call note / report in my hands right now.

"The latest data suggest that recession has now arrived, or will very shortly."

[Nebe]

If your in the middle class, YOU are in a recession. If your in the lower class making less money and own a house right now, YOU are probably in a depression..

I really dont give too hoots how the stock market is doing when i look at the economy to guage how i feel MY business will do in the upcoming months.. High oil prices, high food prices, paired with many in a mortgage crunch will mean to ME that my business will not thrive anytime soon.

I would like to see the figures of personal debt and personal savings.. how many 'normal average income' people are able to save 1/4 of their income in todays economy?? not as many as a few years ago..

there is Nebe's view on things..

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by Nebe

I really dont give too hoots how the stock market is doing...

well, apart from yesterday, has anyone been paying attention to how the market has been tanking? i've been yammering about it for say, the past six months or so.

just picked up another first call note dated 1/9/08 from the goldman sachs automotive (stock) analyst:

Headline: Cutting all estimates, price targets, to reflect U.S. recession in 2008.

[RIROCKHOUND]

good thing you have that side business as a man-whore for elderly women....

I think the economy is unfortunately not front page (like Iraq) b/c of the primary popularity contest that really doesn't cover issues. Ben, I really dont think a lot of people think about all of the aforementioned factors... except the guys who are planning retirement in my department, I know they watch the market daily and decide if they want to work another year or not!!!

Originally Posted by Nebe

If your in the middle class, YOU are in a recession. If your in the lower class making less money and own a house right now, YOU are probably in a depression..

I really dont give too hoots how the stock market is doing when i look at the economy to guage how i feel MY business will do in the upcoming months.. High oil prices, high food prices, paired with many in a mortgage crunch will mean to ME that my business will not thrive anytime soon.

I would like to see the figures of personal debt and personal savings.. how many 'normal average income' people are able to save 1/4 of their income in todays economy?? not as many as a few years ago..

there is Nebe's view on things..

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

...I really dont think a lot of people think about all of the aforementioned factors... except the guys who are planning retirement in my department, I know they watch the market daily and decide if they want to work another year or not!!!

i guess it goes to financial literacy all around. the stock market is boring, but it is also considered a leading indicator as to how the economy is performing.

the market has been anticipating a recession for some time. housing and financials getting whacked from subprime, industrials getting whacked, sector rotation into consumer staples and utilities (which tend to weather recessions okay). the market provides clues.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by fishpoopoo

i guess it goes to financial literacy all around.

Hey count me in as well among the financial illiterates. what I know about financial/economic voodoo wouldn't fit in a shoe... but I try to usually know what oil is +/- a few bucks a barrel and the stock market +/- 500points or so. One is steadily going up, one is steadily going down... that cant be good....

[Nebe]

I was a little vague. I do give a hoot about the market. My point is that it is obvious to me and has been for a long long time that our 'nation' is suffering. The reason i say i dont give a hoot is that one can not judge the state of our national economy from just looking at nasdaq or the DOW... Look at the big picture. foreclosures every day.. manufacturing jobs being shipped over seas at record pace..
look at the value of the dollar??

90% of americans are more concerned about LOST and are we going to get to watch a full season because of the writers strike than what the economy is doing.. And, those who are making billions right now are loving every second of it.

[wheresmy50]

I completely agree that people are more concerned about American Idol than the next president, the war on terror, and the economy combined. I also think that people need to hold their chin up and realize the economy is supposed to go through peaks and troughs.

I'm sick of everyone ragging on America - how everything is soo bad, our president is soo bad, the war is soo bad, and the economy is soo bad. We are simultaneously the richest and least happy society on the planet. Guys take a friggin anti-depressant then get in their BMW and go to work. Suck it the eff up. People in Africa are getting tourtured and killed by the truckload, and we're worried about 5% unemployment. Worst healtcare in the world now too - thanks for waving the flag yet again CNN. How about another story on the 10 easiest ways to attack the US? If I ever read a news story about how great America is I think I'll have a heart attack.

So we may have a recession in '08 - we will be better for it in the long run. We've all lived through recessions before, and this won't be the last. Maybe people will think twice before buying a house that will cost more they can afford, maybe they will start making coffee agian, maybe people will rediscover tap water. Maybe the lessons learned will actually make the economy stronger in 5 years.

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by wheresmy50

I completely agree that people are more concerned about American Idol than the next president, the war on terror, and the economy combined. I also think that people need to hold their chin up and realize the economy is supposed to go through peaks and troughs.

I'm sick of everyone ragging on America - how everything is soo bad, our president is soo bad, the war is soo bad, and the economy is soo bad. We are simultaneously the richest and least happy society on the planet. Guys take a friggin anti-depressant then get in their BMW and go to work. Suck it the eff up. People in Africa are getting tourtured and killed by the truckload, and we're worried about 5% unemployment. Worst healtcare in the world now too - thanks for waving the flag yet again CNN. How about another story on the 10 easiest ways to attack the US? If I ever read a news story about how great America is I think I'll have a heart attack.

So we may have a recession in '08 - we will be better for it in the long run. We've all lived through recessions before, and this won't be the last. Maybe people will think twice before buying a house that will cost more they can afford, maybe they will start making coffee agian, maybe people will rediscover tap water. Maybe the lessons learned will actually make the economy stronger in 5 years.

we may be the richest country, but but the way I see it, most americans are getting poorer at every turn..higher living expenses equal smaller savings. The president is bad and the war right now that is costing us billions of dollars daily is all based on a series of fabricated lies to coerce americans by scare tactics that we had to go in there.. The contracors and corperations who are making those billions of dollars are mighty happy. Durring the years that Bush has served in office each and every american citizen has been givin aprox 30,000 in national debt, while he slashed taxes to the rich..

yeah, Id say things suck right now. The people that i notice who are saying things are good are 'the rich', 'the religious' and frankly 'the ignorant'

I knew this country was screwed when i watched Bush give a talk to a Ford assembly plant full of workers. he was quesitoned why america was so pro-active on exporting manufacturing to china and Bush piped up saying he was 'working on that' and that it is clear that 'we have to make it better to 'do business in america'. The whole plant went wild with applause.. these people were aplauding the very reason that they are loosing thier jobs.. doing business better means higher profits and higher profits mean finding the cheaper labor.. China.

ugg.

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by wheresmy50

I love hearing how the GDP, PPI, CPI, unemployment are all bogus. Were they also bogus during Bill's bubble or just now?

actually, many of the methodologies for calculating figures such as unemployment changed during blow-job bill's watch.

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by Nebe

we may be the richest country, but but the way I see it, most americans are getting poorer at every turn..higher living expenses equal smaller savings. The president is bad and the war right now that is costing us billions of dollars daily is all based on a series of fabricated lies to coerce americans by scare tactics that we had to go in there.. The contracors and corperations who are making those billions of dollars are mighty happy. Durring the years that Bush has served in office each and every american citizen has been givin aprox 30,000 in national debt, while he slashed taxes to the rich..

yeah, Id say things suck right now. The people that i notice who are saying things are good are 'the rich', 'the religious' and frankly 'the ignorant'

I knew this country was screwed when i watched Bush give a talk to a Ford assembly plant full of workers. he was quesitoned why america was so pro-active on exporting manufacturing to china and Bush piped up saying he was 'working on that' and that it is clear that 'we have to make it better to 'do business in america'. The whole plant went wild with applause.. these people were aplauding the very reason that they are loosing thier jobs.. doing business better means higher profits and higher profits mean finding the cheaper labor.. China.

ugg.

but's it's not all bush's fault. globalization was well under way before bush took office. remember what bill clinton said about china while he was in office?

yes, fault the current president for ballooning gov't spending (iraq war, letting pork slip through, cutting taxes at a bad time).

but we have to fault ourselves if we choose to buy plasma t.v.'s made in china on our friggin credit cards.

i blame a lot of our current situation on alan greenspan, who, by printing money by the f*ckload, encouraged an economy based on consumer consumption and asset inflation, as opposed to one that should focus more on savings and capital investment.

i feel sorry for the current fed chairman ben bernanke. if he chooses to be courageous and raise interest rates (that is, cut the money supply), he guarantees a steep recession, maybe even a depression. if he continues to have an easy money policy, the dollar continues to decline, and inflation runs away. short term, stagflation. longer term, corrosive deflation.

i feel sorry for the next president who has to lead a country in this muck. he'll get the blame, even though alan greenspan and the american consumer deserves most of it.