Merrill Lynch: "We're In A Recession"

[decksweeper]

By definition, doesn't a recession only occur after two negative consecutive quarters of GDP? Which has not happened...

[striperman36]

Has anybody seen their order pipeline contractiing? We have a 3 mos backlog.

Is consumer spending down?

Anyone getting laid off locally in recent weeks?

The only things that continues to loom is the 'sub-prime', housing and oil prices.

Anything else I miss?

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by decksweeper

By definition, doesn't a recession only occur after two negative consecutive quarters of GDP? Which has not happened...

that's the textbook definition.

do you believe in the published nominal GDP figures?

do you believe in the published CPI numbers?

after factoring in "true" inflation, real GDP is closer to negative than you think.

The first real evidence of contraction was last week's ISM report, which showed contraction.

[wheresmy50]

Originally Posted by decksweeper

By definition, doesn't a recession only occur after two negative consecutive quarters of GDP? Which has not happened...

Stop talking crazy. If you use "that" definition, then everyone would report that situation, if it ever happened, at the same time (i.e. once the numbers were reported). The way to make money in the new biz is to get the scoop, so you need to be a little creative.

If ML thinks 5% unemployment = a recession, and you're a news organization backing a "change" candidate (let's assume that for a second), then this is a perfect story to run on the eve of the the most important primary of the election. If you're not backing said candidate, you still get your scoop.

I don't think everything is perfect with the economy, but we're not in a recession.

[striperman36]

I think there is a downturn. I do not believe, and don't want to believe it is a recession. 2001-2003 was a painful time for me.

Lets click our heels together and 'There is no recession, I wish I was fishing' three times.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by wheresmy50

Stop talking crazy. If you use "that" definition, then everyone would report that situation, if it ever happened, at the same time (i.e. once the numbers were reported). The way to make money in the new biz is to get the scoop, so you need to be a little creative.

If ML thinks 5% unemployment = a recession, and you're a news organization backing a "change" candidate (let's assume that for a second), then this is a perfect story to run on the eve of the the most important primary of the election. If you're not backing said candidate, you still get your scoop.

I don't think everything is perfect with the economy, but we're not in a recession.

I like this guy!

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by wheresmy50

If ML thinks 5% unemployment = a recession...

Last week's unemployment figures rocked the markets.

Anyhoo, recessions aren't measured by unemployment. they're measured by back to back quarters of GDP declines.

You should know that the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) "manufactures" a lot of jobs with "estimates" of job growth. Don't believe me?

http://www.shadowstats.com

[Skitterpop]

and its an election year...statistics don`t lie but people with an agenda using them do ...

I`m not up on all the details nor do I have any specific knowledge of all this but was`nt there a reliable observer who stated what we have coming down the road would be worse than the Great Depression?

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by Skitterpop

and its an election year...statistics don`t lie but people with an agenda using them do ...

I`m not up on all the details nor do I have any specific knowledge of all this but was`nt there a reliable observer who stated what we have coming down the road would be worse than the Great Depression?

After I retire please!!

[Slipknot]

I thought we been in a reccesion for quite a while now

[Backbeach Jake]

Originally Posted by Slipknot

I thought we been in a reccesion for quite a while now

I was thinking the same thing. Wonder what tipped off ML.