Merrill Lynch: "We're In A Recession"

[Back Beach]

I follow the general concept that economic expansions last 5 years on average, while downturns, recessions, et al. last approximately two years. We're in the early stages of a downturn right now, which is perfectly healthy in the big picture(long term). Things got way out of control with housing, which was not unlike the late 90's "irrational exuberance" with the stock market. You'll hear horror stories, and perhaps experience some pain of your own. When all the excesses get wrung out, we'll expand again. When people capitulate and throw the towel in you can bet we're near a bottom, which isn't the case right now.
I think the credit crunch is far from over. Consider the millions of ARM resets pending and you have another catalyst for further systemic deterioration in the credit and housing markets. It ain't over yet, in fact its just beginning, IMO.

Your best hedge of course is to buy wooden fishing plugs. As the economy slows and unemployment rises, participation in leisure activities such as fishing will increase, thus increasing demand for complemantary items such as wooden fishing lures. Better yet, buy some Alaskan yellow cedar futures...