Merrill Lynch: "We're In A Recession"

[wheresmy50]

The pieces of the puzzle are coming together. A little justification for investing in questionable lending practices?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

[fishpoopoo]

the futures market went UP when the merill news came out this morning and jobless claims were reported - people were expecting bigger sub-prime writeoffs by merill and higher jobless claims.

then the philadelphia manufacturing index came out at a six year low and ben bernanke started flapping his gums on the telly.

has anyone been paying attention to the stock market carnage over the past couple of weeks?

a recession is being baked in by the markets.

[Back Beach]

If its being baked in, I would anticipate a bounce off the March lows for the major indexes and then some sideways action for several months while the subprime stuff works its way out. We're only about three percent above the lows now, which I think we'll hit prior to fed meeting. If that level doesn't hold, its gonna be....
Just a pure laymen's guess though, but hey, even the pros are right only 50 percent of the time at best.

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by Back Beach

If its being baked in, I would anticipate a bounce off the March lows ...

i think at some point you could get a short term relief rally, but the trend would continue downwards after a few months. we're not there yet, methinks.

i'm a little confused as to why certain economists are looking to the second half of the year for the economy to rebound, given that housing woes (delinquencies and defaults) are really just starting to take off, and credit card and other installment loans (car loans, etc) are also showing signs of weakness.



oh well, at least if the economy tanks, gas might get a little cheaper.

my profound question for you all:

will custom wood continue to sell for $50/pop?

[Back Beach]

Look out below tomorrow. Overseas markets got crushed today, many experiencing 5-7% one day declines.

50 handle on wood is baked in....

[fishpoopoo]

i suspect beachmasters will go on sale in a few months.

[fishpoopoo]

holy crap bbj, you weren't kidding.

cash market is closed today, but ...

dow futures are down 500 (FIVE FRICKIN HUNDRED POINTS)!

s&p futures are down 60 (SIXTY FREAKING POINTS)!

gonna get UGLEEEEEEE tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. EST.

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by fishpoopoo

the futures market went UP when the merill news came out this morning and jobless claims were reported - people were expecting bigger sub-prime writeoffs by merill and higher jobless claims.

then the philadelphia manufacturing index came out at a six year low and ben bernanke started flapping his gums on the telly.

has anyone been paying attention to the stock market carnage over the past couple of weeks?

a recession is being baked in by the markets.

Carnage, what ever you want to call it it's really bad and global.

[Raven]

a guy i used to work for

who's one of the best quality carpenters in the state of MASS

has to go to work as an employee instead of a contractor

and hasn't had his phone ring for months...

I also know an electrician whose phone hasn't rung for 4 months


it becomes an issue of public perception not stock market analysis

because the public is always very apprehensive during an election year



until homeowners start hiring skilled laborers again to upgrade their homes
the economy is gonna be lousey

so pray for an early spring