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Old 03-27-2009, 08:32 PM   #151
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But it is also possible that a significant drop from here could carry to new bear market lows. As of now the rally that began on March 10 remains a Sub-Intermediate bear market rally.
I notice that a surprising number of people are becoming unsure of just what constitutes a bear market rally. It is the tendency to overcomplicate in the face of uncertainty. To put it simply, a bear market rally is any rally that takes place within the confines of a primary bear market. It is not a well-defined formula carried down the mountain by Moses. Such rallies can be especially dangerous because of their tendency to stimulate relief and false confidence.
The most destructive bear market rally topped in 1937. Investors had become confident and optimistic about the recovery from the bear market lows of the early 30s. The drop from the 1937 peak hit bottom about 2 quarters later, having peeled off 46%. It became known as the 1937 crash, in which more astute investors were led to the gallows than had been slaughtered in the 1929 crash itself.
There is no reason to think this is what we face now, but the importance of the bounce rally has definitely led to a certain amount of euphoria. Although it may not be good for the blood pressure, it is often healthy to run a little scared.
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Old 03-27-2009, 10:19 PM   #152
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wow, some of you guys should think about starting a blog.

I'm afraid, based on my own experience, that fascism will come to America in the name of national security.

Jim Garrison
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Old 03-28-2009, 07:58 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by RIJIMMY View Post
Ahh, but you're only looking at the tax impact to the small business itself, what about the companies that do business with the small business? As their tax increases, they look for cheaper alternatives which potentially could drive business away.
As I said before, taxes are just one element of the equation. There are many other things that influence why business could be driven away. While our corporate tax rates are very high, the USA is also a very efficient and productive place to do business.

In the end if they can't innovate and be responsive they're not going to last anyway.

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