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Old 08-31-2010, 09:14 AM   #1
JohnR
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Earl

Interesting track:



For reference, the image track from 10am 8/31/2010
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File Type: gif hurricane-earl-8-31-10-10am.gif (42.4 KB, 48 views)

Last edited by JohnR; 08-31-2010 at 10:33 AM..

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Old 08-31-2010, 09:29 AM   #2
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Should be fun driving over the newport bridge sat morn
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Old 08-31-2010, 09:32 AM   #3
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Will post the latest once the Navy and Air Force update their models.
The models are trending more westward as we get closer.

Don't bet any money on it until within the T-48 hour window. There is a 200-300 mi variance in the models at T-96 or greater.
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Old 08-31-2010, 09:43 AM   #4
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That's quite the shift westward from yesterday's models.
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Old 08-31-2010, 09:48 AM   #5
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Correct posted models are interpolated from the the 0200 run. Need to wait another hour or so to get this mornings runs.
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Old 08-31-2010, 09:54 AM   #6
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Looking almost like the track of '38
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:12 AM   #7
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but it'll be a cat 2 by then
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:27 AM   #8
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but it'll be a cat 2 by then
You hope!

Almost time to get our fish on!!!
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:39 AM   #9
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That's an often seen track for Hurricanes. Once it gets in the groove it just rides the coast , still s#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&g energy from the water but beating the heck out of the whole coast line.

Lets hope it goes East!

Last edited by Saltheart; 08-31-2010 at 06:17 PM.. Reason: Homer Simpson moment

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Old 08-31-2010, 10:50 AM   #10
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still trending west, about 60 pct of the models have been updated to the 0800 EDT run
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:54 AM   #11
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Hope it is over by Saturday night. One of the biggest bluefish tournaments in New england is here on Cape Ann with over 600 fishermen on Sunday. We have the Lanesville Bluefish Tournament on Sunday of labor day weekend.
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Old 08-31-2010, 02:01 PM   #12
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but it'll be a cat 2 by then
So was Bob, and Carol. I was only a year old when Carol hit the cape, but I've seen the pictures. And I remember good old Bob very well. Comm Electric had a 100% customer power outage--some for as long as 10 days. Thousands of downed trees, boats blown on shore. And that sucker hit us at low tide.

Believe me--110 to 120 mph sustained winds can cause plenty of damage, as can a 10' or greater storm surge.

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Old 08-31-2010, 02:18 PM   #13
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200 pm runs show it moving more easterly, good alignment with most models, should see this more in the next few runs
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Old 08-31-2010, 01:53 PM   #14
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dON'T OPEN THE DOOR FRIDAY IT MIGHT BE eARL

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Old 08-31-2010, 01:56 PM   #15
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Guessing this one will be quite forgettable!

Almost time to get our fish on!!!
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Old 09-01-2010, 06:05 AM   #16
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I remember a pile of boats on the bar in Marblehead, MA for one of those storms. Had to clean it up with frontend loaders and trailer dumps.

72 hrs of fishing SoCo, not a felony in all 50 states.
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Old 09-01-2010, 02:22 PM   #17
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Just got back from doubling the lines. IMHO all we're going to see in RI is some tropical storm force winds.

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Old 09-01-2010, 03:05 PM   #18
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unknown reason

my power was out this morning when we woke up...

talk about an electrical gizmo addiction fit... kinda feeling

plus, i had to much wine (it was free) ---> hangover
and i couldn't make coffee

i hate when that happens.... friggan Earl's Fault i bet
in advance
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Old 09-01-2010, 09:01 PM   #19
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Jinking west a little.

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Old 09-01-2010, 09:03 PM   #20
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can't wait to see the 0800 models. the high pressure is moving off and the trough expected before the cold front is slowing down.
It could be an ACK smacker or the hooter in muskeget channel
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Old 09-01-2010, 09:19 PM   #21
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Im going to go out on a limb and say im not the only one who is kind of excited for a good storm. Im not taking katrina type stuff. I remember Gloria from when i was a kid living in NYC and it was pretty cool, but id like to see another.

Everything is better on the rocks.
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Old 09-01-2010, 10:29 PM   #22
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I have a backyard big enough for a double-wide FEMA trailer - I hope we get the new ones....

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Old 09-02-2010, 05:59 AM   #23
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Ugh. Not liking this am's tracks. Two of five models now have it heading for the upper Cape.
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Old 09-02-2010, 06:15 AM   #24
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Yes, this is going to be a real problem on the Cape, RI, LI - mainly the Cape and Islands.

Category 3 dropping to 2 (hopefully).

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Old 09-02-2010, 06:16 AM   #25
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Ch.5 had the old boy creeping a little closer than yesterday, but hooking to the north... looks like you guy's to the south have more to worry about than we do up north.... I'll fish tonight and if it looks Iffy, i'll haul at 1Am... at least the ramp will be empty...

A good run is better than a bad stand!
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Old 09-02-2010, 06:26 AM   #26
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Tracking closer than yesterday...

Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.

But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....

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Old 09-02-2010, 12:33 PM   #27
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Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.

But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....

I don't think it's gonna be as bad around our parts, but since you are gonna be away, I'd prob just haul it, cause it would make me nuts all weekend thinking about it ya know?

My kayak is hualed and safely stowed
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Old 09-03-2010, 10:18 AM   #28
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Hi nightfighter....

Welcome to Burlington. I live right in town. if you need any suggestions on restaurants or anything just send me a pm.
Have a great time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nightfighter View Post
Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.

But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....
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Old 09-02-2010, 06:14 AM   #29
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just read that the track is 30 miles off nantucket, I think it was 60 yesterday

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Old 09-02-2010, 06:46 AM   #30
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The track is 20-40 east of ACK.

The NGFDL is not a good performer for this storm, the GFS and the newer HWRF are the 2 to closely watch. 2nd is the NAM


Remember there is still a pct of inaccuracy in the models, about 100 mi 36 hours

Last edited by striperman36; 09-02-2010 at 07:04 AM..
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