Friday-Sunday is looking good

[Raven]

pops ?

[striperman36]

POSSIBLY MOVING
OFFSHORE JUST AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL OR OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MAY TAKE SHAPE. MOST MODELS SIGNALING A STRONG STORM
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING WELL SE OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN...IF THE UPPER LEVEL
VORTEX CAPTURES IT.ONE THEME THAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL FALL...WHICH IS ALL IMPORTANT AS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE S COAST /FOR NOW/
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E COAST BY SATURDAY. DID NOT CARRY QUITE
AS MUCH QPF AS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER
DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...AS
WE HAVE SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE PRIOR TO FRIDAY. THE LAST
SEVERAL EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE SHOWN US THAT...IF THIS LOW BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED...THE SYSTEM/S TRACK COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR MORE CONSENSUS. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

I'll know better tonight after I read the HPC discussions of the 12z runs this if from the 06z runs

[Piscator]

Originally Posted by striperman36

POSSIBLY MOVING
OFFSHORE JUST AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL OR OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MAY TAKE SHAPE. MOST MODELS SIGNALING A STRONG STORM
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING WELL SE OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN...IF THE UPPER LEVEL
VORTEX CAPTURES IT.ONE THEME THAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL FALL...WHICH IS ALL IMPORTANT AS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE S COAST /FOR NOW/
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E COAST BY SATURDAY. DID NOT CARRY QUITE
AS MUCH QPF AS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER
DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...AS
WE HAVE SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE PRIOR TO FRIDAY. THE LAST
SEVERAL EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE SHOWN US THAT...IF THIS LOW BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED...THE SYSTEM/S TRACK COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR MORE CONSENSUS. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

I'll know better tonight after I read the HPC discussions of the 12z runs this if from the 06z runs

Is this your profession or is it a hobby? You seem very knowledgeable with your weather posts. Impressive!

[tattoobob]

Originally Posted by Piscator

Is this your profession or is it a hobby? You seem very knowledgeable with your weather posts. Impressive!

It's just because he has no life

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by tattoobob

It's just because he has no life

Neither do you

[tattoobob]

Originally Posted by striperman36

Neither do you

Is that the best you can come back with?

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by tattoobob

Is that the best you can come back with?

It warrants nothing more for a man that has nothing

[O.D. Mike]

I'll know better tonight after I read the HPC discussions of the 12z runs this if from the 06z runs[/QUOTE]

Sounds like this to me Bill,
I'll know better tonight after I read the "Bla bla" of the "Bla bla" runs this if from the "Bla bla" runs.

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by O.D. Mike

I'll know better tonight after I read the HPC discussions of the 12z runs this if from the 06z runs

Sounds like this to me Bill,
I'll know better tonight after I read the "Bla bla" of the "Bla bla" runs this if from the "Bla bla" runs.[/QUOTE]

Well I guess I won't say

[O.D. Mike]

Originally Posted by striperman36

Sounds like this to me Bill,
I'll know better tonight after I read the "Bla bla" of the "Bla bla" runs this if from the "Bla bla" runs.

Well I guess I won't say[/QUOTE]

Nerd

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by O.D. Mike

Well I guess I won't say

Nerd[/QUOTE]

Yup that me, I read the models review the discussions, whack out a few numbers and argue with the rest of the nerds about it until the next round of models come out.

US models are run by the HPC 4 times a day, European and Canadian models are run twice a day.
There are 6 major weather models in play this time of year. Each has it's own ensemble of up to 8 variations depending on height in the air column being modeled and the type of output, barometric pressure, precip, wind being modeled.

Other localized models or specific models for the Air Force or Navy are also available


All of the above is Unclassified data so all of us can look at it at any time. Pretty cool

[PRBuzz]

Originally Posted by striperman36

All of the above is Unclassified data so all of us can look at it at any time. Pretty cool

I looked at the charts and will leave it up to the experts to decipher. I can handle real-time forecast (I look out the window ) but 2-5 days out..no clue. Most of the trained forecasters only have a clue 50% of the time.

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by O.D. Mike

I'll know better tonight after I read the HPC discussions of the 12z runs this if from the 06z runs

Sounds like this to me Bill,
I'll know better tonight after I read the "Bla bla" of the "Bla bla" runs this if from the "Bla bla" runs.[/QUOTE]

And I will also say that I am employed doing this for our Armed Forces.

You?