Quote:
Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...MOVING UP THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY.
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS INDICATES THE
STORMS CENTER WILL PASS BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF/GGEM/RGEM/UKMET ALL SHOW THE STORM MOVING OVER
NANTUCKET WHILE THE 00Z GFS HOLDS OUT WITH THE STORM PASSING OVER
THE BENCHMARK. LOOKS LIKE THIS IS A NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT FOR THE
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS WITH THIS RUN. SO WHILE
THE SHIFT HAS BEEN RECOGNIZED BY ALL BUT THE GFS...AM HESITANT TO
DISCOUNT EITHER THE GFS OR THE MOST NORTHWESTWARD NAM. MOST GRIDS
ARE BASED ON A STORM TRACK INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BUT STILL A BIT EAST
OF NANTUCKET.
THIS TRACK FAVORS HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH THERE
ARE TWO FACTORS THAT WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
FIRST...THE MORE INTERIOR TRACK WILL ALLOW A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
MASS TO DRY SLOT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. RIGHT NOW...THIS LOOKS TO
HAPPEN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE WARMER AIR IS LIKELY TO ALLOW A CHANGE TO
RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS IS THEN WHERE WE HAVE THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS. MODELS ALL INDICATE ABOUT AN INCH
OF QPF IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AND
A HALF CONCENTRATED ROUGHLY IN THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-84 AND
I-495. THIS HAS TRANSLATED TO ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW MOST OF THE AREA
/EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/ WITH AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 15 INCHES IN
CENTRAL MA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CT AND WESTERN RI.
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Great reading in the morning. And amazingly almost all the models from last nights run agree!!
RUN TO THE SUPERMARKET!!!!!
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