Future Weather: Irene

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

Getting worse, it looks like the low bringing these storms today and tomorrow is going to stall out just north of us...so Irene will run right into it. They seem pretty concerned about the chance for tornados in RI and SE Mass.
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I saw that last night, likely tornadoes spawning on the eastern side of the storm.

Is it 2012 yet? Must be because I haven't seen Raven anywhere on the Hurricane threads so me thinks he's already burrowed in a mountain somewhere.

Interesting that the forecast tracks are creeping westward relative to where they were yesterday. I would have much preferred it had continued east.

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Interesting that the forecast tracks are creeping westward relative to where they were yesterday. I would have much preferred it had continued east.

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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I agree.

To rephrase - continued to trend east as in eye east of Nantucket.

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by spence

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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It's a much better picture for us today, bearing in mind that storms don't always do what the "models" predict. If you take a look at yesterday's NOAA track, in addition to the present track being predicted to be a good bit west, the storm is predicted to weaken. Yesterday's models had it still a cat 1 storm in Maine. Today's have it possibly being "only" TS force when it reaches the CT coast. Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.

The trend in these storms of late (remember Earl last year?) is for them to drift eastwards off the track that the "models" predicted 24-48 hours beforehand. I don't think that we're out of the woods yet. However, unless these models are FUBAR, it will not drift far off to the east as Earl and prior storms did as they got closer to us.

[RIROCKHOUND]

[QUOTE=Mike P;882817]Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.[QUOTE]

It is probably a mix of interaction with the land on the left side, and shallower water. Hurricanes like warm, deep water (where the warm extends to a great depth) so it can keep the heat pump going. Generally thats around 80deg F to maintain-strengthen.....

[JohnR]

Has anyone seen any predicted storm surge models yet? I'm about 14' up and < 1000 feet from the bay. Don't think I'll be waterfront by any stretch but an ounce of preparation....

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Has anyone seen any predicted storm surge models yet? I'm about 14' up and < 1000 feet from the bay. Don't think I'll be waterfront by any stretch but an ounce of preparation....

I had read a potential for 10-15 feet but if the storm stays west I'd think long island would get it the worst.
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

I had read a potential for 10-15 feet but if the storm stays west I'd think long island would get it the worst.
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I agree, but historical models of 38 had lots of storm surge in the bay because the water couldn't get out.

I am so glad I didn't buy on Conimicut Point