Round 2 - Katia (Tracking, venting, swearing...)

[Raven]

hurricane Lee is on the way...

gonna arrive next sunday

fairly close to a full moon

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by Raven

hurricane Lee is on the way...

gonna arrive next sunday

fairly close to a full moon

As a tropical cyclone, Lee is deader than Kelsey's nuts.

Katia will be a cat 3 by the end of today.

I see the GFS track, but----the ECMWF model has it coming a lot closer to us than the rest of the models. Close enough to bring TS strength winds over the outer Cape and ACK.

[striperman36]

ECMWF has been an outlier all week and slow to take the ridge into effect

The GFS has been dead on target for most of these events and the primary one I look at

[likwid]

Originally Posted by striperman36

ECMWF has been an outlier all week and slow to take the ridge into effect

The GFS has been dead on target for most of these events and the primary one I look at

GFS only came onto target for Irene 36 hours out from first landfall.
Its been terrible this season as far as resolution anything beyond that.

[Mike P]

Oh, they're taking the ridge into effect, all right---they just have it playing a very different role than the GFS model.



The GFS had Irene making landfall right around the CT/RI border less than 48 hours before it finally landed.