Future Weather: Irene

[likwid]

5pm is a whole lot more of the same.

horseneck road along the water will disappear.

also possible cat4 in the next 12 hours.

looks like it'll hold cat 2 just south of us saturday.

High tide in NB @ 1920 Sunday

[fishbones]

Originally Posted by likwid

5pm is a whole lot more of the same.

horseneck road along the water will disappear.

also possible cat4 in the next 12 hours.

looks like it'll hold cat 2 just south of us saturday.

High tide in NB @ 1920 Sunday

So are you saying that I shouldn't head down to my friends beach house on West Island this weekend?

[tysdad115]

So what casts best into a 100mph wind? Im thinking loaded bottle Darter?
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[johnny ducketts]

crap....what the hell, do i still have to payback the 8k, housing stimulus if the house is gone...?..

What did you guys do for bob, I was in upstate NY, and only 14 at the time.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by johnny ducketts

What did you guys do for bob, I was in upstate NY, and only 14 at the time.

Drove around in the truck with brother dragging trees out of the street.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by fishbones

So are you saying that I shouldn't head down to my friends beach house on West Island this weekend?

Bring your floaties.
And a chainsaw.

And about 30 gallons of gas.

[Raider Ronnie]

Originally Posted by buckman

I'm seeing a great weather window for Sat morning tuna!!!

Hope so

[Mike P]

I don't see the big shift west that some guys seem to be talking about

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Mike P

I don't see the big shift west that some guys seem to be talking about

Attachment 48139

There hasn't been one, not sure what crack the local news is smoking.

edit: also weather channel.
they were just going on about how GFS shows it hitting hatteras, GFS/GFS ensemble have it running about 50-100 miles offshore hatteras.

crack poureth over

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by likwid

There hasn't been one, not sure what crack the local news is smoking.

edit: also weather channel.
they were just going on about how GFS shows it hitting hatteras, GFS/GFS ensemble have it running about 50-100 miles offshore hatteras.

crack poureth over

Yeh, I just saw that bit. Plus we now have the possibilities of Tornadoes on the east side of the storm. Any check what calendar year this is ? 2012?

But someone alluded earlier that it is always safe where Jim Cantore shows up and supposedly he's doing PVD - so I'm safe!

[Mike P]

The NWS track at 11 PM hasn't changed one iota. Same track as this morning. A bad one for us.

[Mike P]

Still not great, but a little better for us. But--it's gonna suck for millions from NYC to DC.

[likwid]

NYC would be toast if that holds.

Lets see what the turn does.

[Mike P]

That track is starting to look eerily familiar. I was only a year old when this one visited, but I saw the 8 mm movies that my dad took of Taylor's Point in Buzzards Bay.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Mike P

That track is starting to look eerily familiar. I was only a year old when this one visited, but I saw the 8 mm movies that my dad took of Taylor's Point in Buzzards Bay.

Attachment 48143

Carol/38 take your pick.

[Mike P]

38 brought a 10' storm surge in Buzzards Bay, and Carol's was 8'. The old RR station in Wareham had both marks on one of its walls. I think there'll be lots of flooding along the South Coast and up into Buzzards Bay--we have new moon tides coming up, too.

This is going to be a major suck pill for a lot of people. Hopefully, it might have an effect on the thinking about shoreline development, but, probably not.

[likwid]

Edgartown Yacht Club was underwater to the 2nd floor....

Putting the Mako in one of your legal cohorts yard tomorrow.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by Mike P

That track is starting to look eerily familiar. I was only a year old when this one visited, but I saw the 8 mm movies that my dad took of Taylor's Point in Buzzards Bay.

Attachment 48143

There is a big difference between a Cat 1/2 and a Cat 3 storm, but expect a lot of overwash, erosion and damage along the coast. Bob was a 2 over BI, then dropped to a 1. This should be similar intensity....

[justplugit]

The 38 storm was worse than Carol. It brought a large ship in
and deposited in downtown Providence.
I was 15 when Carol hit and that was a wicked storm. Still remember the devestation. Loked like Hiroshima.
The microbursts and tornadoes these storms produce do unbelievable damage.

[spence]

Getting worse, it looks like the low bringing these storms today and tomorrow is going to stall out just north of us...so Irene will run right into it. They seem pretty concerned about the chance for tornados in RI and SE Mass.
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[Mike P]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

There is a big difference between a Cat 1/2 and a Cat 3 storm, but expect a lot of overwash, erosion and damage along the coast. Bob was a 2 over BI, then dropped to a 1. This should be similar intensity....

Bob was a much more compact storm than this one, though. I was living on LI when it passed 60 miles to the west as a cat 2, and the leaves barely rustled. Even on the eastern side, hurricane force winds didn't reach too far from the eye wall.

[RIROCKHOUND]

very true. the size is remanicent of Carol, but the intensity is not.
going to be an event, but not the catasthophic event of Carol or 1938.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

Getting worse, it looks like the low bringing these storms today and tomorrow is going to stall out just north of us...so Irene will run right into it. They seem pretty concerned about the chance for tornados in RI and SE Mass.
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I saw that last night, likely tornadoes spawning on the eastern side of the storm.

Is it 2012 yet? Must be because I haven't seen Raven anywhere on the Hurricane threads so me thinks he's already burrowed in a mountain somewhere.

Interesting that the forecast tracks are creeping westward relative to where they were yesterday. I would have much preferred it had continued east.

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Interesting that the forecast tracks are creeping westward relative to where they were yesterday. I would have much preferred it had continued east.

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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I agree.

To rephrase - continued to trend east as in eye east of Nantucket.

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by spence

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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It's a much better picture for us today, bearing in mind that storms don't always do what the "models" predict. If you take a look at yesterday's NOAA track, in addition to the present track being predicted to be a good bit west, the storm is predicted to weaken. Yesterday's models had it still a cat 1 storm in Maine. Today's have it possibly being "only" TS force when it reaches the CT coast. Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.

The trend in these storms of late (remember Earl last year?) is for them to drift eastwards off the track that the "models" predicted 24-48 hours beforehand. I don't think that we're out of the woods yet. However, unless these models are FUBAR, it will not drift far off to the east as Earl and prior storms did as they got closer to us.

[RIROCKHOUND]

[QUOTE=Mike P;882817]Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.[QUOTE]

It is probably a mix of interaction with the land on the left side, and shallower water. Hurricanes like warm, deep water (where the warm extends to a great depth) so it can keep the heat pump going. Generally thats around 80deg F to maintain-strengthen.....

[JohnR]

Has anyone seen any predicted storm surge models yet? I'm about 14' up and < 1000 feet from the bay. Don't think I'll be waterfront by any stretch but an ounce of preparation....

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Has anyone seen any predicted storm surge models yet? I'm about 14' up and < 1000 feet from the bay. Don't think I'll be waterfront by any stretch but an ounce of preparation....

I had read a potential for 10-15 feet but if the storm stays west I'd think long island would get it the worst.
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[Saltheart]

Moon tide + a foot or two do to wind. That leaves you maybe good to 7 or 8 foot surge. All depends on where and when it hits. Hopefully its low tide!