The economy...real bad or real hyped?

[Back Beach]

Seems like there's always pockets of weakness if you look hard enough, but most of the local S & L's have ample cash, solid balance sheets and are eager to lend. Yes, things seem to be a bit slower, but armageddon? No way. I'm not going to get into splitting hairs with skewed stats and the like, so lets hear your take...is the economy really that bad or is the media setting the bar low for the right to look like heroes in due time?

[The Dad Fisherman]

Depends on who you ask...the guy at his job or the guy looking for one.

[RIJIMMY]

Mike, you know my opinion on this as I have been very vocal on the subject.
You've had some of the largest names in investment banks and brokerages close.
You've has major retailers close. Electronics have been the hottest selling items the last few years and Circuit City is bankrupt.
You have the major automotive cos soon to be bankrupt.
You have massive debt as the government keeps borrowing and devaluing the dollar.
You have a housing market that has not hit bottom.
You have trillions of dollars in junk debt in bad mortgages.
You have high unemployment.
No funky statistics, just what I see going on. I think the governments intentions are good but the bailouts will be short term burts that will soon slide us to a worse place than where we are now. Everyone I talk to is making no vacation plans for 2009. holding off on large purchases. Stores and restaurants are losing money.
Look to the future- another 2-10yrs. You have a record number of baby boomers retiring, bad 401k returns, bankrupt social security, high medical costs. How can this economy handle such a drain?
I think things are very bad and will get worse.

[Nebe]

its bad.

[Fishpart]

It's bad everone I talk to tells me the same thing, truck drivers aren't hauling stuff, machine shops aren't making things, used equipment guys are selling, but no one is buying new.. Possibly the bad news has created reality, but when you combine what we see with the basics Jimmy outlined, it is bad.

[Back Beach]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

Mike, you know my opinion on this as I have been very vocal on the subject.
You've had some of the largest names in investment banks and brokerages close.
You've has major retailers close. Electronics have been the hottest selling items the last few years and Circuit City is bankrupt.
You have the major automotive cos soon to be bankrupt.
You have massive debt as the government keeps borrowing and devaluing the dollar.
You have a housing market that has not hit bottom.
You have trillions of dollars in junk debt in bad mortgages.
You have high unemployment.
No funky statistics, just what I see going on. I think the governments intentions are good but the bailouts will be short term burts that will soon slide us to a worse place than where we are now. Everyone I talk to is making no vacation plans for 2009. holding off on large purchases. Stores and restaurants are losing money.
Look to the future- another 2-10yrs. You have a record number of baby boomers retiring, bad 401k returns, bankrupt social security, high medical costs. How can this economy handle such a drain?
I think things are very bad and will get worse.

I hear ya. With all the above said though, we're not starving to death, schools are in session, people are delaying purchases of "nice to have" items, but I don't see the sky falling. Yet.

The free market system got us here and the gov't "assistance"(interference by bailouts) is only prolonging our recovery, IMO.

[RIJIMMY]

I agree. We'll get by. I just think there will be a lot of corrections needed and I'd personally like to see the consumers/market making them rather than government. If something doesnt work, let it fail. The need will be filled elswhere and new opportunities will open up.

[JohnnyD]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

I agree. We'll get by. I just think there will be a lot of corrections needed and I'd personally like to see the consumers/market making them rather than government. If something doesnt work, let it fail. The need will be filled elswhere and new opportunities will open up.

I started posting then finished reading the rest of the posts. RIJIMMY sums up everything I was thinking with this and his first post. The economic situation has been falling for well over a year now.

The only other thing I'd point to is the horribly weak dollar.

[BigFish]

I have chimed in on this before! If you think it is all hype....count your blessings then because for every one of you there are 30 people who are not so fortunate!! I work at Lowe's now......its dead there. Nobody spending squat and contractors.....3-4 a day asking if they are hiring, that they need part time work to supplement themselves as they have no work??? Bad???? Yeah its bad!! State Street where my wife works having another round of layoffs tomorrow, just had one before Christmas and this is a company that made a ton of money last year, yesterday their stock value was cut by 50%???!!! Bad??? Yup! Its bad! Disney laying off, Filenes closing more stores, shall I go on??? My vote....its bad!!!

[buckman]

It's bad, real bad. If you have a job, your not secure in it. No one is spending money now. How many guys here are upgrading their boats or even looking forward to next summer.

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by buckman

It's bad, real bad. If you have a job, your not secure in it. No one is spending money now. How many guys here are upgrading their boats or even looking forward to next summer.

I am if all goes well next month.

[cheferson]

In restaurants it hasnt been great , but i wouldnt say its horrible. Most places are off some from last year, but people are still coming out. The last 2 weekends have actually been very busy, more so then nov or dec. . The company i work for has also froze pay raises for 09 , but hasnt laid off more then ussual. Im happy to be getting hours through the winter. I did notice less x-mas parties and more being just finger foods.

[spence]

Here's my 2 cents. I don't have any data to back it up so at this point it's just a hunch.

During the Great Depression we didn't really have a middle class. The wealth distribution was really weighted towards the top, which left a large part of the population with little resources to deal with unemployment of up to 30%.

Today things have shifted quite a bit.

The rise of the Middle Class (due in part to a progressive tax system) created an enormous amount of wealth (due in part to trickle up economics) that's still out there (and made bigger by trickle down economics).

If you're young, chances are you have a higher standard of living to begin with than you might have during the Great Depression (or from now on we'll call it the Great DP ).

Given the global economy, the first to feel the pinch are the really poor, most of whom are now in other countries. It's quite possible that the outsourcing of most of our manufacturing base has actually insulated the US from an earlier or more rapid shock.

Now we're seeing a large loss of white collar jobs, which indicates that the situation is pretty bad.

I think 2009 is going to be a year of upside down statistics. Companies are going to continue layoffs as their sales decline, but at the same time other fundamental indicators should pick up later this year. IBM just anounced a positive earnings forcast, and the credit freeze appears to thawing somewhat...

That being said, an economy this big is like a huge tanker...it don't turn on no dime.

-spence

[BigFish]

I am still speculating we have not seen the bottom yet. Looking for 9 maybe 10% unemployment first......maybe another 3 months before we bottom out.

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by spence

That being said, an economy this big is like a huge tanker...it don't turn on no dime.

-spence

Yep.. and we had Joseph Hazelwood as captian for the past 8 years...