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Covita is the incumbent and has not been over 45 percent in the polls since March. Incumbents are in trouble when they are under 50 percent going into an election. Covita is currently at 43 percent.
This is due to the fact Covita has been losing support from his base—seniors and whites with only a high school education. At the same time, he’s losing the swing voters who elected him last time Independents, suburban women, and whites with a college ed.
Covita is on the wrong side of COVID, which has been the dominant issue in this campaign for half a year. The public wants a practical plan to protect them from the ravages of this pandemic, to restart sustainable economic growth and return to normal.
Covita has not only misread that desire in the electorate, but has rejected that approach at every turn, vacillating instead between wishing COVID away and pretending that it was already gone.
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