Actually, there is some truth to what he says. It does not take very many fish to have a successful YOY class if conditions are right, and I believe that genetic studies have shown that big YOY classes may be the result of several hundred fish spawning successfully in one small area. Presumably this is what "saved" the fishery back in the early 90's. On the other hand those few hundred fish are typically from the same school and are prone to being wiped out quite easily by intense focused fishing effort.....which is the norm these days when the remaining fish are located. The fewer schools, the less the chance one group hits it big.
His argument also overlooks the toll natural mortality takes on fish. There where loads of small fish everywhere 3 years ago. Coincident with the mycobacteriosis epidemic they seem to have disappeared. If natural mortality goes way up, fishing mortality has to go way down or the number of fish plummets quickly.
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