I hope this happens soon

[zimmy]

Originally Posted by JLH

Large numbers of big fish don't guarantee high recruitment numbers. Environmental factors seem to play at least as big a role as the biomass. We have had very good numbers of big fish for the last 5 or so years and very poor YOY indices, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 were all well below average, we have one good year class coming up (2011). People are complaining about the lack of small fish but we have plenty of big fish around. Start harvesting the small fish we do have and what do we have left in 10 years? Big fish die of natural causes. How hard do you think the 2011 year class of fish would get hit in a few years with a slot limit? The management plan that people credit with bringing back the population of striped bass protected the one good year class we had at the time and gave them an opportunity to reproduce before they were harvested.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Environmental factors matter, particularly for a given year. The size of the breeding population matters tremendously over an extended period of time. Clearly, there are years with plenty of fish where there are breeders, but terrible yoy, but the good years are better when there are more breeders, so it somewhat balances out. Although, I am curious about what you base your statement about plenty of big fish?

I agree there is potential for some year classes to get hammered, but
more restrictive regulations can be used to protect certain year classes. The slot can also change to target certain size fish. Since harvesting small fish only gets half females, and young fish are easier to replace. A size class can get somewhat more hammered when young with less impact.
One thing about the 80's is that there were few big fish or small fish and even less fisherman. People weren't killing fish over 36" like they are now, so it is a tough to compare today to then. I also don't think the problem is people taking 2 fish every time they go, but rather one fish over and over up and down the coast.

[JLH]

Originally Posted by zimmy

Environmental factors matter, particularly for a given year. The size of the breeding population matters tremendously over an extended period of time. Clearly, there are years with plenty of fish where there are breeders, but terrible yoy, but the good years are better when there are more breeders, so it somewhat balances out. Although, I am curious about what you base your statement about plenty of big fish?

I agree there is potential for some year classes to get hammered, but
more restrictive regulations can be used to protect certain year classes. The slot can also change to target certain size fish. Since harvesting small fish only gets half females, and young fish are easier to replace. A size class can get somewhat more hammered when young with less impact.
One thing about the 80's is that there were few big fish or small fish and even less fisherman. People weren't killing fish over 36" like they are now, so it is a tough to compare today to then. I also don't think the problem is people taking 2 fish every time they go, but rather one fish over and over up and down the coast.

I guess “plenty” of big fish is pretty subjective. For what it’s worth the biomass has been and is still above the target (though its dropping). As you’ve pointed out earlier there have big numbers of large fish caught/killed from Virginia through Mass every year recently so wouldn’t that point to us having had a pretty healthy population of big fish over the last 5+ years? Unfortunately the numbers of big fish haven’t translated into very good YOY numbers.

I agree that the size of the breeding population matters but does it matter as much as environmental factors? The breeding population has been dropping since 2004 yet in 2011 (where there were significantly less fish around than there were in 2004, 2005, 2006 etc…) was has our best YOY in the last 10 years. The 2012 YOY is one of the lowest recorded in recent years and the population hasn’t changed that dramatically in one year. Ideally you want to have the largest population numbers line up with the years with the best environmental conditions but if a management plan is designed to protect only the big fish and you have an aged population of breeders that will die of natural causes what happens when you have a long run of years with bad environmental factors? You are not going to have the numbers of small fish coming up every year to replace them especially with a slot that targets the smaller fish. A more evenly distributed population could be better option when there are other environmental factors at play that can’t be anticipated.

My point about the 80s and the recovery is that the management plan protected the few good year classes of fish we had at that time. You mentioned having regulations to protect certain year classes, adjusting slot limits based on the distribution of the population, those are good ideas if they could be implemented. Having a set slot limit from 18-27 or whatever that ever year class has to survive to even get to spawning age in my opinion is not a good management plan. For the record I don’t think 2 at 28 is a good plan either.

All the people taking one fish every trip are certainly taking their share. My biggest gripe with two is really the charter boat industry that takes 12 to 16 fish per trip often running two trips per day. Over a season that adds up to a lot of dead fish. It's hard to blame the captains with the current regulations, they need to keep their customers happy if they want to stay in business.